Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America
International audience We present a method of multiproxy reconstruction of the climate of Europe during the last millennium. The proxies used comprise long tree-ring width series, grape harvest dates, Greenland ice oxygen isotope series and temperature indices based on historical documents. The prox...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01515921v1 2023-05-15T16:30:21+02:00 Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America GENNARETTI, Fabio Arseneault, Dominique Nicault, Antoine Perreault, Luc Bégin, Yves Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR) Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN) Université Laval Québec (ULaval) Hydro-Québec 2014 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp en eng HAL CCSD National Academy of Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp hal-01515921 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 doi:10.1191/0959683605hl819rp PRODINRA: 11999 ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, National Academy of Sciences, 2014, 15 (4), pp.489 - 10082. ⟨10.1191/0959683605hl819rp⟩ CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION MULTIPROXY RECONSTRUCTION LITTLE ICE AGE WESTERN EUROPE DENDROCLIMATOLOGY [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2014 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp 2022-06-05T00:27:18Z International audience We present a method of multiproxy reconstruction of the climate of Europe during the last millennium. The proxies used comprise long tree-ring width series, grape harvest dates, Greenland ice oxygen isotope series and temperature indices based on historical documents. The proxies are calibrated using gridded April to September mean temperatures for western Europe, i.e., between 10°W and 20°E and between 35°N and 55°N. They are calibrated also using the long instrumental summer temperature series of the Marseilles observatory of Longchamp, which begins in the mid-eighteenth century. The method is a combination of an analogue technique, which is able to deal with missing data, an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear calibration and a bootstrap technique for calculating error bars on the reconstruction. About 70% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. The amplitude of the past temperature variations is particularly well reconstructed, which is important when considering whether the recent temperature trend is or is not within the natural variability. It appears that the temperature of the last decade of the twentieth century was reached only 14 times during the last millennium. The reconstruction is discussed with respect to other multiproxy and borehole temperature reconstructions. We conclude that a reconstruction such ours, with a specific regional focus (as opposed to the larger Northern Hemisphere) is more reliable and is in better agreement with borehole results, even allowing for the fact that only a part of the long-term variance is reconstructed. 'Little Ice Age' (c. AD 1560 - 1930) summers were 0.2±0.5°C cooler than the 1961 - 1990 period. Borehole temperatures indicate a cooling of 0.4°C which falls in the 95% confidence interval of our reconstructions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland The Holocene 15 4 489 500 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION MULTIPROXY RECONSTRUCTION LITTLE ICE AGE WESTERN EUROPE DENDROCLIMATOLOGY [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION MULTIPROXY RECONSTRUCTION LITTLE ICE AGE WESTERN EUROPE DENDROCLIMATOLOGY [SDE]Environmental Sciences GENNARETTI, Fabio Arseneault, Dominique Nicault, Antoine Perreault, Luc Bégin, Yves Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America |
topic_facet |
CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION MULTIPROXY RECONSTRUCTION LITTLE ICE AGE WESTERN EUROPE DENDROCLIMATOLOGY [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience We present a method of multiproxy reconstruction of the climate of Europe during the last millennium. The proxies used comprise long tree-ring width series, grape harvest dates, Greenland ice oxygen isotope series and temperature indices based on historical documents. The proxies are calibrated using gridded April to September mean temperatures for western Europe, i.e., between 10°W and 20°E and between 35°N and 55°N. They are calibrated also using the long instrumental summer temperature series of the Marseilles observatory of Longchamp, which begins in the mid-eighteenth century. The method is a combination of an analogue technique, which is able to deal with missing data, an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear calibration and a bootstrap technique for calculating error bars on the reconstruction. About 70% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. The amplitude of the past temperature variations is particularly well reconstructed, which is important when considering whether the recent temperature trend is or is not within the natural variability. It appears that the temperature of the last decade of the twentieth century was reached only 14 times during the last millennium. The reconstruction is discussed with respect to other multiproxy and borehole temperature reconstructions. We conclude that a reconstruction such ours, with a specific regional focus (as opposed to the larger Northern Hemisphere) is more reliable and is in better agreement with borehole results, even allowing for the fact that only a part of the long-term variance is reconstructed. 'Little Ice Age' (c. AD 1560 - 1930) summers were 0.2±0.5°C cooler than the 1961 - 1990 period. Borehole temperatures indicate a cooling of 0.4°C which falls in the 95% confidence interval of our reconstructions. |
author2 |
Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR) Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN) Université Laval Québec (ULaval) Hydro-Québec |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
GENNARETTI, Fabio Arseneault, Dominique Nicault, Antoine Perreault, Luc Bégin, Yves |
author_facet |
GENNARETTI, Fabio Arseneault, Dominique Nicault, Antoine Perreault, Luc Bégin, Yves |
author_sort |
GENNARETTI, Fabio |
title |
Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America |
title_short |
Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America |
title_full |
Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America |
title_fullStr |
Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America |
title_sort |
volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern north america |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, National Academy of Sciences, 2014, 15 (4), pp.489 - 10082. ⟨10.1191/0959683605hl819rp⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp hal-01515921 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515921 doi:10.1191/0959683605hl819rp PRODINRA: 11999 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl819rp |
container_title |
The Holocene |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
489 |
op_container_end_page |
500 |
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1766020074344284160 |