Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins
International audience Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable esti...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2017
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01510894v1 |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
survival sea ice concentration southern annular mode Bayesian climate change emperor penguins integrated population model [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
survival sea ice concentration southern annular mode Bayesian climate change emperor penguins integrated population model [SDE]Environmental Sciences Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
topic_facet |
survival sea ice concentration southern annular mode Bayesian climate change emperor penguins integrated population model [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. |
author2 |
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) School of Statistics and Actuarial Science South Africa University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg (WITS) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier |
author_facet |
Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Abadi, Fitsum |
title |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_short |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_full |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_fullStr |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
title_sort |
integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 |
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ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) ENVELOPE(140.013,140.013,-66.667,-66.667) |
geographic |
Dumont d'Urville Dumont-d'Urville |
geographic_facet |
Dumont d'Urville Dumont-d'Urville |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2017, 23 (3), pp.1353-1359. ⟨10.1111/gcb.13538⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.13538 hal-01510894 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 doi:10.1111/gcb.13538 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1353 |
op_container_end_page |
1359 |
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1766256607891554304 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01510894v1 2023-05-15T13:52:19+02:00 Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins Abadi, Fitsum Barbraud, Christophe Gimenez, Olivier Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) School of Statistics and Actuarial Science South Africa University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg (WITS) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) 2017-03-13 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.13538 hal-01510894 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 doi:10.1111/gcb.13538 ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01510894 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2017, 23 (3), pp.1353-1359. ⟨10.1111/gcb.13538⟩ survival sea ice concentration southern annular mode Bayesian climate change emperor penguins integrated population model [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13538 2021-11-21T02:29:16Z International audience Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Dumont d'Urville ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) Dumont-d'Urville ENVELOPE(140.013,140.013,-66.667,-66.667) Global Change Biology 23 3 1353 1359 |