Influence of ENSO on the Pacific decadal oscillation in CMIP models

• Published in: Climate Dynamics
• Main Authors: Nidheesh, A. G., Lengaigne, Matthieu, Vialard, Jérôme, Izumo, Takeshi, Unnikrishnan, A. S., Cassou, Christophe
• Other Authors: CSIR - National Institute of Oceanography, Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences (IFCWS), Indian Institute of Science Bangalore (IISc Bangalore), CERFACS Toulouse, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-13-SENV-0002,MORDICUS,Oscillations et rétroactions climatiques aux échelles décennales : mécanismes, sensibilité et incertitudes(2013)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: Decadal variability; PDO; Climate; CMIP; ENSO; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]; Pacific; aleutian low
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01504530; https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3514-8

International audience Emerging decadal climate predictions call for an assessment of decadal climate variability in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database. In this paper, we evaluate the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 10 control simulations from the CMIP3 and 22 from the CMIP5 database. All models overestimate the time lag between ENSO forcing and the PDO response. While half of the models exhibit ENSO-PDO correlation which is close to that in observation (>0.5) when the time lag is accounted for, the rest of the models underestimate this relationship. Models with stronger ENSO-PDO correlation tend to exhibit larger PDO-related signals in the equatorial and south Pacific, highlighting the key role of ENSO teleconnection in setting the inter-hemispheric Pacific pattern of the PDO. The strength of the ENSO-PDO relationship is related to both ENSO amplitude and strength of ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific sea-level pressure variability in the Aleutian Low region. The shape of the PDO spectrum is consistent with that predicted from a combination of direct ENSO forcing, atmospheric stochastic forcing over the North Pacific and the re-emergence process in 27 models out of 32. Given the essential role of ENSO in shaping the Pacific decadal variability, models displaying realistic ENSO amplitude and teleconnections should be preferentially used to perform decadal prediction experiments.