Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean
International audience Decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. However, determining the applicability of these results in the real...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2015
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Multiple%20Equilibria%20as%20a%20Possible%20Mechanism%20for%20Decadal%20Variability%20in%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Ocean.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 |
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English |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Born, Andreas Mignot, Juliette Stocker, Thomas F. Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. However, determining the applicability of these results in the real world is challenging because of an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here, the authors show that recent attempts to reconstruct the decadal variations in one of the dominant circulation systems of the region, the subpolar gyre (SPG), are not always consistent. A coherent picture is partly recovered by a simple conceptual model solely forced by reanalyzed surface air temperatures. This confirms that surface heat flux indeed plays a leading role for this type of variability, as has been suggested in previous studies. The results further suggest that large variations in the SPG correspond to the crossing of a bifurcation point that is predicted from idealized experiments and an analytical solution of the model used herein. Performance of this conceptual model is tested against a statistical stochastic model. Hysteresis and the existence of two stable modes of the SPG circulation shape its response to forcing by atmospheric temperatures. The identification of the essential dynamics and the reduction to a minimal model of SPG variability provide a quantifiable basis and a framework for future studies on decadal climate variability and predictability. |
author2 |
Climate and Environmental Physics Bern (CEP) Physikalisches Institut Bern Universität Bern Bern -Universität Bern Bern Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) University of Bern Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) European Project: 308378,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,SPECS(2012) European Project: 8402271(1984) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Born, Andreas Mignot, Juliette Stocker, Thomas F. |
author_facet |
Born, Andreas Mignot, Juliette Stocker, Thomas F. |
author_sort |
Born, Andreas |
title |
Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the north atlantic ocean |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Multiple%20Equilibria%20as%20a%20Possible%20Mechanism%20for%20Decadal%20Variability%20in%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Ocean.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2015, 28 (22), pp.8907 - 8922. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 |
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Journal of Climate |
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28 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01496548v1 2023-05-15T17:31:03+02:00 Multiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean Born, Andreas Mignot, Juliette Stocker, Thomas F. Climate and Environmental Physics Bern (CEP) Physikalisches Institut Bern Universität Bern Bern -Universität Bern Bern Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) University of Bern Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) European Project: 308378,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,SPECS(2012) European Project: 8402271(1984) 2015 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Multiple%20Equilibria%20as%20a%20Possible%20Mechanism%20for%20Decadal%20Variability%20in%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Ocean.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308378/EU/Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of EuropeanClimate Services/SPECS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//8402271/EU/Improved Modelling of Buildings for Earthquake Response Analysis/ hal-01496548 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Multiple%20Equilibria%20as%20a%20Possible%20Mechanism%20for%20Decadal%20Variability%20in%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Ocean.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 IRD: fdi:010065458 WOS: 000364629500015 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2015, 28 (22), pp.8907 - 8922. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1 2021-12-04T23:53:22Z International audience Decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. However, determining the applicability of these results in the real world is challenging because of an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here, the authors show that recent attempts to reconstruct the decadal variations in one of the dominant circulation systems of the region, the subpolar gyre (SPG), are not always consistent. A coherent picture is partly recovered by a simple conceptual model solely forced by reanalyzed surface air temperatures. This confirms that surface heat flux indeed plays a leading role for this type of variability, as has been suggested in previous studies. The results further suggest that large variations in the SPG correspond to the crossing of a bifurcation point that is predicted from idealized experiments and an analytical solution of the model used herein. Performance of this conceptual model is tested against a statistical stochastic model. Hysteresis and the existence of two stable modes of the SPG circulation shape its response to forcing by atmospheric temperatures. The identification of the essential dynamics and the reduction to a minimal model of SPG variability provide a quantifiable basis and a framework for future studies on decadal climate variability and predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Journal of Climate 28 22 8907 8922 |