A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes
International audience Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2017
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/file/Messori_et_al_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072879 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01460728v1 |
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institution |
Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
and Planetary Sciences Atmospheric Earth Classification: Physical Sciences Keywords: Predictability Temperature Extremes Dynamical Systems [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-DATA-AN]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Data Analysis Statistics and Probability [physics.data-an] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
and Planetary Sciences Atmospheric Earth Classification: Physical Sciences Keywords: Predictability Temperature Extremes Dynamical Systems [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-DATA-AN]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Data Analysis Statistics and Probability [physics.data-an] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Messori, Gabriele Caballero, Rodrigo Faranda, Davide A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes |
topic_facet |
and Planetary Sciences Atmospheric Earth Classification: Physical Sciences Keywords: Predictability Temperature Extremes Dynamical Systems [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-DATA-AN]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Data Analysis Statistics and Probability [physics.data-an] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on timescales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favour extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to one week in advance. Significance Statement Extreme weather events carry major social and economic costs; improving their predictability is therefore of crucial importance. Forecasting the occurrence of a given extreme event can be more or less difficult depending on the state of the atmosphere from which the forecast is initialised. In this study we apply diagnostics from the field of dynamical systems analysis to identify the atmospheric states providing the best predictability and investigate their link to wintertime temperature extremes in Europe. We find that these states of " maximum predictability " correspond to significant changes in the frequency of very warm or cold spells, and are often followed by large-scale extreme temperature events. These findings can provide a useful complement to existing operational forecast tools. |
author2 |
Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Department of Meteorology Stockholm (MISU) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Messori, Gabriele Caballero, Rodrigo Faranda, Davide |
author_facet |
Messori, Gabriele Caballero, Rodrigo Faranda, Davide |
author_sort |
Messori, Gabriele |
title |
A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes |
title_short |
A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes |
title_full |
A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes |
title_fullStr |
A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes |
title_sort |
dynamical systems approach to studying mid-latitude weather extremes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/file/Messori_et_al_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072879 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2017, pp.GL0728879. ⟨10.1002/2017GL072879⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL072879 hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/file/Messori_et_al_2017.pdf doi:10.1002/2017GL072879 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072879 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3346 |
op_container_end_page |
3354 |
_version_ |
1766134921710010368 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01460728v1 2023-05-15T17:35:41+02:00 A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes Messori, Gabriele Caballero, Rodrigo Faranda, Davide Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Department of Meteorology Stockholm (MISU) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) 2017 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/file/Messori_et_al_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072879 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL072879 hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728/file/Messori_et_al_2017.pdf doi:10.1002/2017GL072879 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460728 Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2017, pp.GL0728879. ⟨10.1002/2017GL072879⟩ and Planetary Sciences Atmospheric Earth Classification: Physical Sciences Keywords: Predictability Temperature Extremes Dynamical Systems [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-DATA-AN]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Data Analysis Statistics and Probability [physics.data-an] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072879 2021-12-19T02:38:33Z International audience Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on timescales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favour extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to one week in advance. Significance Statement Extreme weather events carry major social and economic costs; improving their predictability is therefore of crucial importance. Forecasting the occurrence of a given extreme event can be more or less difficult depending on the state of the atmosphere from which the forecast is initialised. In this study we apply diagnostics from the field of dynamical systems analysis to identify the atmospheric states providing the best predictability and investigate their link to wintertime temperature extremes in Europe. We find that these states of " maximum predictability " correspond to significant changes in the frequency of very warm or cold spells, and are often followed by large-scale extreme temperature events. These findings can provide a useful complement to existing operational forecast tools. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Geophysical Research Letters 44 7 3346 3354 |