Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints
International audience Despite large progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01349651v1 2023-05-15T13:31:46+02:00 Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) San Francisco, United States 2016-12-12 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349651 en eng HAL CCSD hal-01349651 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349651 AGU Fall Meeting https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349651 AGU Fall Meeting, Dec 2016, San Francisco, United States [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference papers 2016 ftccsdartic 2021-11-07T04:16:08Z International audience Despite large progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. In addition, some physical limits to future sea-level rise by 2100 have been established, although approximately. These constraints to future sea-level change projections are essentially associated to epistemic uncertainties, so that the theory of probabilities appears too constraining in terms of quality and quantity of necessary data to account for this type of uncertainty. In this contribution, we propose to go beyond the classical use of probabilities by relying on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory): this prevents from selecting a single cumulative probability distribution, which is hardly achievable given the level of imprecision and lack of knowledge, but rather enables to identify all the possible cumulative probability distributions that are consistent with the available objective pieces of information, namely the constraints provided by the IPCC as well as by recent publications regarding the future melting of ice sheets. We focus on the case of sea-level rise by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Importantly, we make no assumptions regarding the actual shape of the distributions. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections. However, we show that the cumulative probability distributions used so-far have only explored a subset of rather conservative sea-level probabilistic projections. Hence, coastal impacts studies of sea-level rise could be larger than previously estimated while complying with the constraints provided by the IPCC. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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English |
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[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
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[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience Despite large progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. In addition, some physical limits to future sea-level rise by 2100 have been established, although approximately. These constraints to future sea-level change projections are essentially associated to epistemic uncertainties, so that the theory of probabilities appears too constraining in terms of quality and quantity of necessary data to account for this type of uncertainty. In this contribution, we propose to go beyond the classical use of probabilities by relying on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory): this prevents from selecting a single cumulative probability distribution, which is hardly achievable given the level of imprecision and lack of knowledge, but rather enables to identify all the possible cumulative probability distributions that are consistent with the available objective pieces of information, namely the constraints provided by the IPCC as well as by recent publications regarding the future melting of ice sheets. We focus on the case of sea-level rise by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Importantly, we make no assumptions regarding the actual shape of the distributions. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections. However, we show that the cumulative probability distributions used so-far have only explored a subset of rather conservative sea-level probabilistic projections. Hence, coastal impacts studies of sea-level rise could be larger than previously estimated while complying with the constraints provided by the IPCC. |
author2 |
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy |
author_facet |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy |
author_sort |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
title |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints |
title_short |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints |
title_full |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints |
title_fullStr |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints |
title_sort |
bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the ipcc constraints |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349651 |
op_coverage |
San Francisco, United States |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
op_source |
AGU Fall Meeting https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349651 AGU Fall Meeting, Dec 2016, San Francisco, United States |
op_relation |
hal-01349651 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349651 |
_version_ |
1766020812861603840 |