On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice
International audience Satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) and reanalyzed atmospheric data are used to explore the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate resulting from autumn SIC variability over the Barents– Kara Seas region (SIC/BK). The period of study is 1979/80–2012/13. M...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2015
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/file/Garcia-Serrano_2015_On_the.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01191761v1 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume De la Càmara, Alvaro On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience Satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) and reanalyzed atmospheric data are used to explore the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate resulting from autumn SIC variability over the Barents– Kara Seas region (SIC/BK). The period of study is 1979/80–2012/13. Maximum covariance analyses show that the leading predictand is indistinguishable from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The leading covari-ability mode between September SIC/BK and winter North Atlantic–European sea level pressure (SLP) is not significant, indicating that no empirical prediction skill can be achieved. The leading covariability mode with either October or November SIC/BK is moderately significant (significance levels ,10%), and both predictor fields yield a cross-validated NAO correlation of 0.3, suggesting some empirical prediction skill of the winter NAO index, with sea ice reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas being accompanied by a negative NAO phase in winter. However, only November SIC/BK provides significant cross-validated skill of winter SLP, surface air temperature, and precipitation anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector, namely in southwestern Europe. Statistical analysis suggests that November SIC/BK anomalies are associated with a Rossby wave train–like anomaly across Eurasia that affects vertical wave activity modulating the stratospheric vortex strength, which is then followed by downward propagation of anomalies that impact transient-eddy activity in the upper troposphere, helping to settle and maintain the NAO-like pattern at surface. This stratospheric pathway is not detected when using October SIC/BK anomalies. Hence, only November SIC/BK, with a one-month lead time, could be considered as a potential source of regional predictability. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume De la Càmara, Alvaro |
author_facet |
García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume De la Càmara, Alvaro |
author_sort |
García-Serrano, Javier |
title |
On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice |
title_short |
On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice |
title_full |
On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice |
title_fullStr |
On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice |
title_sort |
on the predictability of the winter euro-atlantic climate: lagged influence of autumn arctic sea ice |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/file/Garcia-Serrano_2015_On_the.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2015, 28 (13), pp.5195-5216. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/file/Garcia-Serrano_2015_On_the.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
5195 |
op_container_end_page |
5216 |
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1766343240086192128 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01191761v1 2023-05-15T15:12:34+02:00 On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume De la Càmara, Alvaro Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) 2015-07 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/file/Garcia-Serrano_2015_On_the.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761/file/Garcia-Serrano_2015_On_the.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01191761 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2015, 28 (13), pp.5195-5216. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1⟩ [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1 2021-11-21T03:05:00Z International audience Satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) and reanalyzed atmospheric data are used to explore the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate resulting from autumn SIC variability over the Barents– Kara Seas region (SIC/BK). The period of study is 1979/80–2012/13. Maximum covariance analyses show that the leading predictand is indistinguishable from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The leading covari-ability mode between September SIC/BK and winter North Atlantic–European sea level pressure (SLP) is not significant, indicating that no empirical prediction skill can be achieved. The leading covariability mode with either October or November SIC/BK is moderately significant (significance levels ,10%), and both predictor fields yield a cross-validated NAO correlation of 0.3, suggesting some empirical prediction skill of the winter NAO index, with sea ice reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas being accompanied by a negative NAO phase in winter. However, only November SIC/BK provides significant cross-validated skill of winter SLP, surface air temperature, and precipitation anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector, namely in southwestern Europe. Statistical analysis suggests that November SIC/BK anomalies are associated with a Rossby wave train–like anomaly across Eurasia that affects vertical wave activity modulating the stratospheric vortex strength, which is then followed by downward propagation of anomalies that impact transient-eddy activity in the upper troposphere, helping to settle and maintain the NAO-like pattern at surface. This stratospheric pathway is not detected when using October SIC/BK anomalies. Hence, only November SIC/BK, with a one-month lead time, could be considered as a potential source of regional predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Journal of Climate 28 13 5195 5216 |