Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins
International audience Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few s...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01138142v1 2023-05-15T13:59:04+02:00 Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins Torres, Leigh G. Sutton, Philip J. H. Thompson, David R. Delord, Karine Weimerskirch, Henri Sagar, Paul M. Sommer, Erica Dilley, Ben J. Ryan, Peter G. Phillips, Richard A. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington (NIWA) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Christchurch (NIWA) Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town DST/NRF Centre of Excellence University of Cape Town-Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) 2015-03-06 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 en eng HAL CCSD Public Library of Science info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 hal-01138142 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 ISSN: 1932-6203 EISSN: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 PLoS ONE, Public Library of Science, 2015, 10 (3), pp.e0120014. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0120014⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 2021-10-24T12:12:13Z International audience Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Marion Island Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic Kerguelen PLOS ONE 10 3 e0120014 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Torres, Leigh G. Sutton, Philip J. H. Thompson, David R. Delord, Karine Weimerskirch, Henri Sagar, Paul M. Sommer, Erica Dilley, Ben J. Ryan, Peter G. Phillips, Richard A. Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate ... |
author2 |
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington (NIWA) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Christchurch (NIWA) Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town DST/NRF Centre of Excellence University of Cape Town-Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Torres, Leigh G. Sutton, Philip J. H. Thompson, David R. Delord, Karine Weimerskirch, Henri Sagar, Paul M. Sommer, Erica Dilley, Ben J. Ryan, Peter G. Phillips, Richard A. |
author_facet |
Torres, Leigh G. Sutton, Philip J. H. Thompson, David R. Delord, Karine Weimerskirch, Henri Sagar, Paul M. Sommer, Erica Dilley, Ben J. Ryan, Peter G. Phillips, Richard A. |
author_sort |
Torres, Leigh G. |
title |
Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins |
title_short |
Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins |
title_full |
Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins |
title_fullStr |
Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins |
title_full_unstemmed |
Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the Grey Petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across Ocean Basins |
title_sort |
poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 |
geographic |
Antarctic Kerguelen |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Kerguelen |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Marion Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Marion Island |
op_source |
ISSN: 1932-6203 EISSN: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 PLoS ONE, Public Library of Science, 2015, 10 (3), pp.e0120014. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0120014⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 hal-01138142 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01138142 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
e0120014 |
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