Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years
International audience Background: The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of...
Published in: | PLoS ONE |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2010
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/file/journal.pone.0009972.PDF https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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English |
topic |
Seasons Climate change Europe Ice cores Pollen Summer Volcanoes Glaciers [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
Seasons Climate change Europe Ice cores Pollen Summer Volcanoes Glaciers [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Guiot, Joel Corona, Christophe Brewer, S. Chalié, F. Daux, Valérie Édouard, Jean-Louis Girardclos, O. Guibal, F. Lambert, G. Masson‐Delmotte, V. Pichard, G. Servonnat, J. Swingedouw, D. Thomas, A. Yiou, P. Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years |
topic_facet |
Seasons Climate change Europe Ice cores Pollen Summer Volcanoes Glaciers [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Background: The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data.Methodology/Principal Findings: An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings.Conclusions: We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20th century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The ... |
author2 |
Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) Ecosystèmes continentaux et risques environnementaux (ECCOREV) Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute of geological science University of Berne Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Géochrononologie Traceurs Archéométrie (GEOTRAC) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) ANR-06-VULN-0010,ESCARSEL,Evolution Séculaire du Climat dans les régions circum-Atlantiques et Réponse de Systèmes Eco-Lacustres(2006) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guiot, Joel Corona, Christophe Brewer, S. Chalié, F. Daux, Valérie Édouard, Jean-Louis Girardclos, O. Guibal, F. Lambert, G. Masson‐Delmotte, V. Pichard, G. Servonnat, J. Swingedouw, D. Thomas, A. Yiou, P. |
author_facet |
Guiot, Joel Corona, Christophe Brewer, S. Chalié, F. Daux, Valérie Édouard, Jean-Louis Girardclos, O. Guibal, F. Lambert, G. Masson‐Delmotte, V. Pichard, G. Servonnat, J. Swingedouw, D. Thomas, A. Yiou, P. |
author_sort |
Guiot, Joel |
title |
Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years |
title_short |
Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years |
title_full |
Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years |
title_fullStr |
Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years |
title_full_unstemmed |
Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years |
title_sort |
growing season temperatures in europe and climate forcings over the past 1400 years |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/file/journal.pone.0009972.PDF https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
ISSN: 1932-6203 EISSN: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819 PLoS ONE, Public Library of Science, 2010, 5 (4), pp.e9972. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0009972⟩ |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 |
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e9972 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01116819v1 2023-05-15T16:39:27+02:00 Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years Guiot, Joel Corona, Christophe Brewer, S. Chalié, F. Daux, Valérie Édouard, Jean-Louis Girardclos, O. Guibal, F. Lambert, G. Masson‐Delmotte, V. Pichard, G. Servonnat, J. Swingedouw, D. Thomas, A. Yiou, P. Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) Ecosystèmes continentaux et risques environnementaux (ECCOREV) Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute of geological science University of Berne Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Géochrononologie Traceurs Archéométrie (GEOTRAC) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) ANR-06-VULN-0010,ESCARSEL,Evolution Séculaire du Climat dans les régions circum-Atlantiques et Réponse de Systèmes Eco-Lacustres(2006) 2010 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/file/journal.pone.0009972.PDF https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 en eng HAL CCSD Public Library of Science info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 hal-01116819 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819/file/journal.pone.0009972.PDF doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1932-6203 EISSN: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01116819 PLoS ONE, Public Library of Science, 2010, 5 (4), pp.e9972. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0009972⟩ Seasons Climate change Europe Ice cores Pollen Summer Volcanoes Glaciers [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2010 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009972 2021-12-19T02:13:29Z International audience Background: The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data.Methodology/Principal Findings: An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings.Conclusions: We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20th century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The ... Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) PLoS ONE 5 4 e9972 |