Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook
International audience The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish popula...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00929702v1 2023-05-15T15:27:57+02:00 Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Beaugrand, Gregory Wanless, Sarah Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) 2013-02 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00929702 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12072 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.12072 hal-00929702 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00929702 doi:10.1111/gcb.12072 ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00929702 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2013, 19 (2), pp.364-372. ⟨10.1111/gcb.12072⟩ [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12072 2021-11-28T01:21:12Z International audience The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic puffin Black-legged Kittiwake Calanus finmarchicus common guillemot Faroes fratercula Fratercula arctica Iceland Northeast Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Copepods uria Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Norway Global Change Biology 19 2 364 372 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Beaugrand, Gregory Wanless, Sarah Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Beaugrand, Gregory Wanless, Sarah |
author_facet |
Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Beaugrand, Gregory Wanless, Sarah |
author_sort |
Frederiksen, Morten |
title |
Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook |
title_short |
Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook |
title_full |
Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook |
title_fullStr |
Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook |
title_sort |
climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal northeast atlantic - current state and future outlook |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00929702 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12072 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Atlantic puffin Black-legged Kittiwake Calanus finmarchicus common guillemot Faroes fratercula Fratercula arctica Iceland Northeast Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Copepods uria |
genre_facet |
Atlantic puffin Black-legged Kittiwake Calanus finmarchicus common guillemot Faroes fratercula Fratercula arctica Iceland Northeast Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Copepods uria |
op_source |
ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00929702 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2013, 19 (2), pp.364-372. ⟨10.1111/gcb.12072⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.12072 hal-00929702 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00929702 doi:10.1111/gcb.12072 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12072 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
364 |
op_container_end_page |
372 |
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1766358341013995520 |