When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates
International audience In long-lived species only a fraction of a population breeds at a given time. Non-breeders can represent more than half of adult individuals, calling in doubt the relevance of estimating demographic parameters from the sole breeders. Here we demonstrate the importance of consi...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00800222v1 2024-02-11T10:03:21+01:00 When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates Pardo, Deborah Weimerskirch, Henri Barbraud, Christophe British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2013 https://hal.science/hal-00800222 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 en eng HAL CCSD Public Library of Science info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 hal-00800222 https://hal.science/hal-00800222 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC3612038 ISSN: 1932-6203 EISSN: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE https://hal.science/hal-00800222 PLoS ONE, 2013, 8 (3), pp.e60389. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0060389⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 2024-01-27T23:33:35Z International audience In long-lived species only a fraction of a population breeds at a given time. Non-breeders can represent more than half of adult individuals, calling in doubt the relevance of estimating demographic parameters from the sole breeders. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering observable non-breeders to estimate reliable demographic traits: survival, return, breeding, hatching and fledging probabilities. We study the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). In this species, the breeding cycle lasts almost a year and birds that succeed a given year tend to skip the next breeding occasion while birds that fail tend to breed again the following year. Most non-breeders remain unobservable at sea, but still a substantial number of observable non-breeders (ONB) was identified on breeding sites. Using multi-state capture-mark-recapture analyses, we used several measures to compare the performance of demographic estimates between models incorporating or ignoring ONB: bias (difference in mean), precision (difference is standard deviation) and accuracy (both differences in mean and standard deviation). Our results highlight that ignoring ONB leads to bias and loss of accuracy on breeding probability and survival estimates. These effects are even stronger when studied in an age-dependent framework. Biases on breeding probabilities and survival increased with age leading to overestimation of survival at old age and thus actuarial senescence and underestimation of reproductive senescence. We believe our study sheds new light on the difficulties of estimating demographic parameters in species/taxa where a significant part of the population does not breed every year. Taking into account ONB appeared important to improve demographic parameter estimates, models of population dynamics and evolutionary conclusions regarding senescence within and across taxa. Article in Journal/Newspaper Diomedea exulans Wandering Albatross Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) PLoS ONE 8 3 e60389 |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences Pardo, Deborah Weimerskirch, Henri Barbraud, Christophe When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience In long-lived species only a fraction of a population breeds at a given time. Non-breeders can represent more than half of adult individuals, calling in doubt the relevance of estimating demographic parameters from the sole breeders. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering observable non-breeders to estimate reliable demographic traits: survival, return, breeding, hatching and fledging probabilities. We study the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). In this species, the breeding cycle lasts almost a year and birds that succeed a given year tend to skip the next breeding occasion while birds that fail tend to breed again the following year. Most non-breeders remain unobservable at sea, but still a substantial number of observable non-breeders (ONB) was identified on breeding sites. Using multi-state capture-mark-recapture analyses, we used several measures to compare the performance of demographic estimates between models incorporating or ignoring ONB: bias (difference in mean), precision (difference is standard deviation) and accuracy (both differences in mean and standard deviation). Our results highlight that ignoring ONB leads to bias and loss of accuracy on breeding probability and survival estimates. These effects are even stronger when studied in an age-dependent framework. Biases on breeding probabilities and survival increased with age leading to overestimation of survival at old age and thus actuarial senescence and underestimation of reproductive senescence. We believe our study sheds new light on the difficulties of estimating demographic parameters in species/taxa where a significant part of the population does not breed every year. Taking into account ONB appeared important to improve demographic parameter estimates, models of population dynamics and evolutionary conclusions regarding senescence within and across taxa. |
author2 |
British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pardo, Deborah Weimerskirch, Henri Barbraud, Christophe |
author_facet |
Pardo, Deborah Weimerskirch, Henri Barbraud, Christophe |
author_sort |
Pardo, Deborah |
title |
When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
title_short |
When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
title_full |
When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
title_fullStr |
When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
title_full_unstemmed |
When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
title_sort |
when celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00800222 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 |
genre |
Diomedea exulans Wandering Albatross |
genre_facet |
Diomedea exulans Wandering Albatross |
op_source |
ISSN: 1932-6203 EISSN: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE https://hal.science/hal-00800222 PLoS ONE, 2013, 8 (3), pp.e60389. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0060389⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 hal-00800222 https://hal.science/hal-00800222 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC3612038 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060389 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
e60389 |
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