Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic
International audience The comparison of circulation patterns (CPs) obtained from reanalysis data to those from general circulation model (GCM) simulations is a frequent task for model validation, downscaling of GCM simulations, or other climate change–related studies. Here, the authors suggest a se...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2010
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Quantifying%20Differences%20in%20Circulation%20Patterns%20Based%20on%20Probabilistic%20Models%20IPCC%20AR4%20Multimodel%20Comparison%20for%20the%20North%20Atlantic.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Rust, Henning W. Vrac, Mathieu Lengaigne, Matthieu Sultan, Benjamin Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience The comparison of circulation patterns (CPs) obtained from reanalysis data to those from general circulation model (GCM) simulations is a frequent task for model validation, downscaling of GCM simulations, or other climate change–related studies. Here, the authors suggest a set of measures to quantify the differences between CPs. A combination of clustering using Gaussian mixture models with a set of related difference measures allows for taking cluster size and shape information into account and thus provides more information than the Euclidean distances between cluster centroids. The characteristics of the various distance measures are illustrated with a simple simulated example. Subsequently, a five-component Gaussian mixture to define circulation patterns for the North Atlantic region from reanalysis data and GCM simulations is used. CPs are obtained independently for the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), as well as for twentieth-century simulations from 14 GCMs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) database. After discussing the difference of CPs based on spherical and nonspherical clusters for the reanalysis datasets, the authors give a detailed evaluation of the cluster configuration for two GCMs relative to NCEP–NCAR. Finally, as an illustration, the capability of reproducing the NCEP–NCAR probability density function (pdf) defining the Greenland anticyclone CP is evaluated for all 14 GCMs, considering that the size and shape of the underlying pdfs complement the commonly used Euclidean distance of CPs’ mean values. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) GIS REGYNA |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rust, Henning W. Vrac, Mathieu Lengaigne, Matthieu Sultan, Benjamin |
author_facet |
Rust, Henning W. Vrac, Mathieu Lengaigne, Matthieu Sultan, Benjamin |
author_sort |
Rust, Henning W. |
title |
Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
quantifying differences in circulation patterns based on probabilistic models: ipcc ar4 multimodel comparison for the north atlantic |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Quantifying%20Differences%20in%20Circulation%20Patterns%20Based%20on%20Probabilistic%20Models%20IPCC%20AR4%20Multimodel%20Comparison%20for%20the%20North%20Atlantic.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2010, 23 (24), pp.6573-6589. ⟨10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
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https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 |
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Journal of Climate |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00759251v1 2023-05-15T16:30:04+02:00 Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic Rust, Henning W. Vrac, Mathieu Lengaigne, Matthieu Sultan, Benjamin Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) GIS REGYNA 2010-12-15 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Quantifying%20Differences%20in%20Circulation%20Patterns%20Based%20on%20Probabilistic%20Models%20IPCC%20AR4%20Multimodel%20Comparison%20for%20the%20North%20Atlantic.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 hal-00759251 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Quantifying%20Differences%20in%20Circulation%20Patterns%20Based%20on%20Probabilistic%20Models%20IPCC%20AR4%20Multimodel%20Comparison%20for%20the%20North%20Atlantic.pdf IRD: fdi:010074992 BIBCODE: 2010JCli.23.6573R doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 WOS: WOS:000286553500008 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00759251 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2010, 23 (24), pp.6573-6589. ⟨10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2010 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 2021-12-19T00:04:11Z International audience The comparison of circulation patterns (CPs) obtained from reanalysis data to those from general circulation model (GCM) simulations is a frequent task for model validation, downscaling of GCM simulations, or other climate change–related studies. Here, the authors suggest a set of measures to quantify the differences between CPs. A combination of clustering using Gaussian mixture models with a set of related difference measures allows for taking cluster size and shape information into account and thus provides more information than the Euclidean distances between cluster centroids. The characteristics of the various distance measures are illustrated with a simple simulated example. Subsequently, a five-component Gaussian mixture to define circulation patterns for the North Atlantic region from reanalysis data and GCM simulations is used. CPs are obtained independently for the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), as well as for twentieth-century simulations from 14 GCMs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) database. After discussing the difference of CPs based on spherical and nonspherical clusters for the reanalysis datasets, the authors give a detailed evaluation of the cluster configuration for two GCMs relative to NCEP–NCAR. Finally, as an illustration, the capability of reproducing the NCEP–NCAR probability density function (pdf) defining the Greenland anticyclone CP is evaluated for all 14 GCMs, considering that the size and shape of the underlying pdfs complement the commonly used Euclidean distance of CPs’ mean values. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland Journal of Climate 23 24 6573 6589 |