A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data
This study aims to describe a new nonparametric ecological niche model for the analysis of presence-only data, which we use to map the spatial distribution of Atlantic cod and to project the potential impact of climate change on this species. The new model, called the Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ec...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00757629v1 2023-05-15T15:27:10+02:00 A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data Beaugrand, Gregory Lenoir, S. Ibañez, F. Citadel Hill, the Hoe Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV) Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2011-03-01 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757629 en eng HAL CCSD hal-00757629 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757629 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757629 2011 info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint Preprints, Working Papers, . 2011 ftccsdartic 2021-11-21T03:58:51Z This study aims to describe a new nonparametric ecological niche model for the analysis of presence-only data, which we use to map the spatial distribution of Atlantic cod and to project the potential impact of climate change on this species. The new model, called the Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche (NPPEN) model, is derived from a test recently applied to compare the ecological niche of 2 different species. The analysis is based on a simplification of the Multiple Response Permutation Procedures (MRPP) using the Generalised Mahalanobis distance. For the first time, we propose to test the generalized Mahalanobis distance by a non-parametric procedure, thus avoiding the arbitrary selection of quantile classes to allow the direct estimation of the probability of occurrence of a species. The model NPPEN was applied to model the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of Atlantic cod and therefore its spatial distribution. The modelled niche exhibited high probabilities of occurrence at bathymetry ranging from 0 to 500 m (mode from 100 to 300 m), at annual sea surface temperature of from -1 to 14°C (mode from 4 to 8°C) and at annual sea surface salinity ranging from 0 to 36 (mode from 25 to 34). This made the species a good indicator of the subarctic province. Current climate change is having a strong effect on North Sea cod and may have also reinforced the negative impact of fishing on stocks located offshore of North America. The model shows a pronounced effect of present-day climate change on the spatial distribution of Atlantic cod. Projections for the coming decades suggest that cod may eventually disappear as a commercial species from regions where a sustained decrease or collapse has already been documented. In contrast, the abundance of cod is likely to increase in the Barents Sea. Report atlantic cod Barents Sea Subarctic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Barents Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
description |
This study aims to describe a new nonparametric ecological niche model for the analysis of presence-only data, which we use to map the spatial distribution of Atlantic cod and to project the potential impact of climate change on this species. The new model, called the Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche (NPPEN) model, is derived from a test recently applied to compare the ecological niche of 2 different species. The analysis is based on a simplification of the Multiple Response Permutation Procedures (MRPP) using the Generalised Mahalanobis distance. For the first time, we propose to test the generalized Mahalanobis distance by a non-parametric procedure, thus avoiding the arbitrary selection of quantile classes to allow the direct estimation of the probability of occurrence of a species. The model NPPEN was applied to model the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of Atlantic cod and therefore its spatial distribution. The modelled niche exhibited high probabilities of occurrence at bathymetry ranging from 0 to 500 m (mode from 100 to 300 m), at annual sea surface temperature of from -1 to 14°C (mode from 4 to 8°C) and at annual sea surface salinity ranging from 0 to 36 (mode from 25 to 34). This made the species a good indicator of the subarctic province. Current climate change is having a strong effect on North Sea cod and may have also reinforced the negative impact of fishing on stocks located offshore of North America. The model shows a pronounced effect of present-day climate change on the spatial distribution of Atlantic cod. Projections for the coming decades suggest that cod may eventually disappear as a commercial species from regions where a sustained decrease or collapse has already been documented. In contrast, the abundance of cod is likely to increase in the Barents Sea. |
author2 |
Citadel Hill, the Hoe Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV) Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Report |
author |
Beaugrand, Gregory Lenoir, S. Ibañez, F. |
spellingShingle |
Beaugrand, Gregory Lenoir, S. Ibañez, F. A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
author_facet |
Beaugrand, Gregory Lenoir, S. Ibañez, F. |
author_sort |
Beaugrand, Gregory |
title |
A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
title_short |
A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
title_full |
A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
title_fullStr |
A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
title_full_unstemmed |
A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
title_sort |
new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species based on presence-only data |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757629 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
atlantic cod Barents Sea Subarctic |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Barents Sea Subarctic |
op_source |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757629 2011 |
op_relation |
hal-00757629 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757629 |
_version_ |
1766357620486045696 |