Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models?
International audience 1. Capture-recapture mixture models are important tools in evolution and ecology to estimate demographic parameters and abundance while accounting for individual heterogeneity. A key step is to select the correct number of mixture components i) to provide unbiased estimates th...
Published in: | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x |
id |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00707466v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
capture-recapture individual heterogeneity classification information criteria simulation experiment mixture models [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] [STAT.TH]Statistics [stat]/Statistics Theory [stat.TH] [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
capture-recapture individual heterogeneity classification information criteria simulation experiment mixture models [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] [STAT.TH]Statistics [stat]/Statistics Theory [stat.TH] [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Cubaynes, Sarah Lavergne, Christian Gimenez, Olivier Marboutin, Eric Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
topic_facet |
capture-recapture individual heterogeneity classification information criteria simulation experiment mixture models [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] [STAT.TH]Statistics [stat]/Statistics Theory [stat.TH] [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
International audience 1. Capture-recapture mixture models are important tools in evolution and ecology to estimate demographic parameters and abundance while accounting for individual heterogeneity. A key step is to select the correct number of mixture components i) to provide unbiased estimates that can be used as reliable proxies of fitness or ingredients in management strategies and ii) classify individuals into biologically meaningful classes. However, there is no consensus method in the statistical literature for selecting the number of components. 2. In ecology, most studies rely on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) that has recently gained attention in ecology. The Integrated Completed Likelihood criterion (ICL; IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2000, 22, 719) was specifically developed to favour well-separated components, but its use has never been investigated in ecology. 3. We compared the performance of AIC, BIC and ICL for selecting the number of components with regard to a) bias and accuracy of survival and detection estimates and b) success in selecting the true number of components using extensive simulations and data on wolf (Canis lupus) that were used for management through survival and abundance estimation. 4. Bias in survival and detection estimates was <0.02 for both AIC and BIC, and more than 0.09 for ICL, while mean square error was <0.05 for all criteria. As expected, bias increased as heterogeneity increased. Success rates of AIC and BIC in selecting the 'true' number of components were better than ICL (68% for AIC, 58% for BIC, and 16% for ICL). As the degree of heterogeneity increased, AIC (and BIC in a lesser extent) overestimated the number of components, while ICL often underestimated this number. For the wolf study, the 2-class model was selected by BIC and ICL, while AIC could not decide between the 2- and 3-class models. 5. We recommend using AIC or BIC when the aim is to estimate parameters. ... |
author2 |
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) Institut de Mathématiques et de Modélisation de Montpellier (I3M) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM) Oncfs ONCFS |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cubaynes, Sarah Lavergne, Christian Gimenez, Olivier Marboutin, Eric |
author_facet |
Cubaynes, Sarah Lavergne, Christian Gimenez, Olivier Marboutin, Eric |
author_sort |
Cubaynes, Sarah |
title |
Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
title_short |
Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
title_full |
Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
title_fullStr |
Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
title_sort |
assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x |
genre |
Canis lupus |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus |
op_source |
ISSN: 2041-210X EISSN: 2041-210X Methods in Ecology and Evolution https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Wiley, 2012, 3 (3), pp.564-573. ⟨10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x hal-00707466 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 doi:10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x |
container_title |
Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
564 |
op_container_end_page |
573 |
_version_ |
1766386509740507136 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00707466v1 2023-05-15T15:51:20+02:00 Assessing individual heterogeneity using model selection criteria: how many mixture components in capture-recapture models? Cubaynes, Sarah Lavergne, Christian Gimenez, Olivier Marboutin, Eric Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) Institut de Mathématiques et de Modélisation de Montpellier (I3M) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM) Oncfs ONCFS 2012 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x hal-00707466 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 doi:10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x ISSN: 2041-210X EISSN: 2041-210X Methods in Ecology and Evolution https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707466 Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Wiley, 2012, 3 (3), pp.564-573. ⟨10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x⟩ capture-recapture individual heterogeneity classification information criteria simulation experiment mixture models [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] [STAT.TH]Statistics [stat]/Statistics Theory [stat.TH] [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2012 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00175.x 2021-11-21T04:06:49Z International audience 1. Capture-recapture mixture models are important tools in evolution and ecology to estimate demographic parameters and abundance while accounting for individual heterogeneity. A key step is to select the correct number of mixture components i) to provide unbiased estimates that can be used as reliable proxies of fitness or ingredients in management strategies and ii) classify individuals into biologically meaningful classes. However, there is no consensus method in the statistical literature for selecting the number of components. 2. In ecology, most studies rely on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) that has recently gained attention in ecology. The Integrated Completed Likelihood criterion (ICL; IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2000, 22, 719) was specifically developed to favour well-separated components, but its use has never been investigated in ecology. 3. We compared the performance of AIC, BIC and ICL for selecting the number of components with regard to a) bias and accuracy of survival and detection estimates and b) success in selecting the true number of components using extensive simulations and data on wolf (Canis lupus) that were used for management through survival and abundance estimation. 4. Bias in survival and detection estimates was <0.02 for both AIC and BIC, and more than 0.09 for ICL, while mean square error was <0.05 for all criteria. As expected, bias increased as heterogeneity increased. Success rates of AIC and BIC in selecting the 'true' number of components were better than ICL (68% for AIC, 58% for BIC, and 16% for ICL). As the degree of heterogeneity increased, AIC (and BIC in a lesser extent) overestimated the number of components, while ICL often underestimated this number. For the wolf study, the 2-class model was selected by BIC and ICL, while AIC could not decide between the 2- and 3-class models. 5. We recommend using AIC or BIC when the aim is to estimate parameters. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3 3 564 573 |