Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland
International audience The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/file/tc-5-961-2011.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 |
id |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00640154v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Guðmundsson, S. Björnsson, Helgi Palsson, F. Johannesson, T. Hannesdóttir, H. Sigurdsson, S. Berthier, Etienne Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of the ice cap Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeastern coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1989, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936-1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by kinematic and differential GPS surveys and correlation of SPOT5 images. The approximately 20% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895-2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios derived from 10 global and 3 regional climate model simulations using the A1B emission scenario. If the average climate of 2000-2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century. If the climate warms, as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios, the model projects this glacier to almost disappear by the end of the 21st century. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30-40 yr and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area. |
author2 |
Institute of Earth Sciences Reykjavik University of Iceland Reykjavik Icelandic Meteorological Office Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Guðmundsson, S. Björnsson, Helgi Palsson, F. Johannesson, T. Hannesdóttir, H. Sigurdsson, S. Berthier, Etienne |
author_facet |
Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Guðmundsson, S. Björnsson, Helgi Palsson, F. Johannesson, T. Hannesdóttir, H. Sigurdsson, S. Berthier, Etienne |
author_sort |
Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. |
title |
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
title_short |
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
title_full |
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland |
title_sort |
modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of hoffellsjökull glacier, se-vatnajökull, iceland |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/file/tc-5-961-2011.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-16.823,-16.823,64.420,64.420) ENVELOPE(-15.535,-15.535,64.470,64.470) |
geographic |
Vatnajökull Hoffellsjökull |
geographic_facet |
Vatnajökull Hoffellsjökull |
genre |
glacier Ice cap Iceland The Cryosphere Vatnajökull |
genre_facet |
glacier Ice cap Iceland The Cryosphere Vatnajökull |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2011, 5 (4), pp.961-975. ⟨10.5194/tc-5-961-2011⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/file/tc-5-961-2011.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
961 |
op_container_end_page |
975 |
_version_ |
1766009621525299200 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00640154v1 2023-05-15T16:21:37+02:00 Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Guðmundsson, S. Björnsson, Helgi Palsson, F. Johannesson, T. Hannesdóttir, H. Sigurdsson, S. Berthier, Etienne Institute of Earth Sciences Reykjavik University of Iceland Reykjavik Icelandic Meteorological Office Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2011 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/file/tc-5-961-2011.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154/file/tc-5-961-2011.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00640154 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2011, 5 (4), pp.961-975. ⟨10.5194/tc-5-961-2011⟩ [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-961-2011 2021-10-24T17:13:06Z International audience The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of the ice cap Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeastern coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1989, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936-1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by kinematic and differential GPS surveys and correlation of SPOT5 images. The approximately 20% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895-2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios derived from 10 global and 3 regional climate model simulations using the A1B emission scenario. If the average climate of 2000-2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century. If the climate warms, as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios, the model projects this glacier to almost disappear by the end of the 21st century. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30-40 yr and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Ice cap Iceland The Cryosphere Vatnajökull Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Vatnajökull ENVELOPE(-16.823,-16.823,64.420,64.420) Hoffellsjökull ENVELOPE(-15.535,-15.535,64.470,64.470) The Cryosphere 5 4 961 975 |