Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland
International audience Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variabilit...
Published in: | Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00567864v1 2023-05-15T16:49:41+02:00 Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland Ornthammarath, Teraphan Douglas, John Sigbjörnsson, Ragnar Lai, Carlo ROSE School, EUCENTRE Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) University of Iceland Reykjavik 2011 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/file/ornthammarathetal2011.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 hal-00567864 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/file/ornthammarathetal2011.pdf doi:10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1570-761X EISSN: 1573-1456 Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864 Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, Springer Verlag, 2011, 9 (4), pp.931-953. ⟨10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9⟩ Seismic hazard analysis GMPEs Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 2021-10-17T01:55:00Z International audience Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 9 4 931 953 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Seismic hazard analysis GMPEs Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
Seismic hazard analysis GMPEs Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Ornthammarath, Teraphan Douglas, John Sigbjörnsson, Ragnar Lai, Carlo Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland |
topic_facet |
Seismic hazard analysis GMPEs Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained. |
author2 |
ROSE School, EUCENTRE Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) University of Iceland Reykjavik |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ornthammarath, Teraphan Douglas, John Sigbjörnsson, Ragnar Lai, Carlo |
author_facet |
Ornthammarath, Teraphan Douglas, John Sigbjörnsson, Ragnar Lai, Carlo |
author_sort |
Ornthammarath, Teraphan |
title |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland |
title_short |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland |
title_full |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: A case study for Iceland |
title_sort |
assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/file/ornthammarathetal2011.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
ISSN: 1570-761X EISSN: 1573-1456 Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864 Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, Springer Verlag, 2011, 9 (4), pp.931-953. ⟨10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 hal-00567864 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00567864/file/ornthammarathetal2011.pdf doi:10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 |
container_title |
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
931 |
op_container_end_page |
953 |
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