Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.
International audience 1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00530490v1 2023-05-15T13:41:57+02:00 Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. Barbraud, Christophe Rivalan, Philippe Inchausti, Pablo Nevoux, Marie Rolland, Virginie Weimerskirch, Henri Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) French Polar Institute (IPEV) 109 Terres Australes et Antarctiques Francaises; Zone Atelier de Recherches sur l'Environnement Antarctique et Subantarctique (CNRS - INEE); ANR; NSF DEB-0343820 2011 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/20840607 hal-00530490 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x PRODINRA: 265621 PUBMED: 20840607 WOS: 000285110600009 ISSN: 0021-8790 EISSN: 1365-2656 Journal of Animal Ecology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 Journal of Animal Ecology, Wiley, 2011, 80 (1), pp.89-100. ⟨10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x 2021-05-30T00:27:25Z International audience 1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic Southern Ocean Journal of Animal Ecology 80 1 89 100 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Barbraud, Christophe Rivalan, Philippe Inchausti, Pablo Nevoux, Marie Rolland, Virginie Weimerskirch, Henri Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience 1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for ... |
author2 |
Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) French Polar Institute (IPEV) 109 Terres Australes et Antarctiques Francaises; Zone Atelier de Recherches sur l'Environnement Antarctique et Subantarctique (CNRS - INEE); ANR; NSF DEB-0343820 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barbraud, Christophe Rivalan, Philippe Inchausti, Pablo Nevoux, Marie Rolland, Virginie Weimerskirch, Henri |
author_facet |
Barbraud, Christophe Rivalan, Philippe Inchausti, Pablo Nevoux, Marie Rolland, Virginie Weimerskirch, Henri |
author_sort |
Barbraud, Christophe |
title |
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. |
title_short |
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. |
title_full |
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. |
title_fullStr |
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. |
title_sort |
contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in southern ocean seabirds. |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0021-8790 EISSN: 1365-2656 Journal of Animal Ecology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 Journal of Animal Ecology, Wiley, 2011, 80 (1), pp.89-100. ⟨10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/20840607 hal-00530490 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530490 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x PRODINRA: 265621 PUBMED: 20840607 WOS: 000285110600009 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x |
container_title |
Journal of Animal Ecology |
container_volume |
80 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
89 |
op_container_end_page |
100 |
_version_ |
1766160796962783232 |