Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic.
19 pages International audience The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series o...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00496193v1 2023-05-15T13:19:54+02:00 Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. Gilg, Olivier Sittler, Benoît Hanski, Ilkka Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences Institut für Landespflege University of Freiburg Freiburg Research partly funded by the Academy of Finland (Finnish Centre-of-Excellence Programs for 2000–05 and 2006–08, Grant numbers 20286 and 213457). 2009-11 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496193 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley hal-00496193 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496193 ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496193 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2009, 15 (11), pp.2634-2652 Alopex lagopus Arctic community climate change cyclic dynamics Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca predator–prey interaction Stercorarius longicaudus [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Symbiosis [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2009 ftccsdartic 2020-12-26T07:56:44Z 19 pages International audience The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator–prey interactions. The lemming–predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming–predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alopex lagopus Arctic Fox Arctic Climate change Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Long-tailed Skua Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca snowy owl Stercorarius longicaudus Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Alopex lagopus Arctic community climate change cyclic dynamics Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca predator–prey interaction Stercorarius longicaudus [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Symbiosis [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
Alopex lagopus Arctic community climate change cyclic dynamics Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca predator–prey interaction Stercorarius longicaudus [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Symbiosis [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Gilg, Olivier Sittler, Benoît Hanski, Ilkka Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. |
topic_facet |
Alopex lagopus Arctic community climate change cyclic dynamics Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca predator–prey interaction Stercorarius longicaudus [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Symbiosis [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
19 pages International audience The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator–prey interactions. The lemming–predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming–predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic. |
author2 |
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences Institut für Landespflege University of Freiburg Freiburg Research partly funded by the Academy of Finland (Finnish Centre-of-Excellence Programs for 2000–05 and 2006–08, Grant numbers 20286 and 213457). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gilg, Olivier Sittler, Benoît Hanski, Ilkka |
author_facet |
Gilg, Olivier Sittler, Benoît Hanski, Ilkka |
author_sort |
Gilg, Olivier |
title |
Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. |
title_short |
Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. |
title_full |
Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. |
title_fullStr |
Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic. |
title_sort |
climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high arctic. |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496193 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Alopex lagopus Arctic Fox Arctic Climate change Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Long-tailed Skua Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca snowy owl Stercorarius longicaudus |
genre_facet |
Alopex lagopus Arctic Fox Arctic Climate change Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Long-tailed Skua Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca snowy owl Stercorarius longicaudus |
op_source |
ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496193 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2009, 15 (11), pp.2634-2652 |
op_relation |
hal-00496193 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496193 |
_version_ |
1766350144258703360 |