Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population
International audience 1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while t...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00362170v1 2023-05-15T17:35:15+02:00 Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population Nevoux, Marie Barbraud, Jean-Claude Barbraud, Christophe Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Groupe Ornithologique Aunis-Saintonge La Nougerée Région Poitou-Charentes 2008-12-17 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/18624741 hal-00362170 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x PRODINRA: 265626 PUBMED: 18624741 WOS: 000260052400009 ISSN: 0021-8790 EISSN: 1365-2656 Journal of Animal Ecology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 Journal of Animal Ecology, Wiley, 2008, 77 (6), pp.1143-1152. ⟨10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x⟩ Ciconia ciconia juvenile and adult survival North Atlantic oscillation recruitment Sahel rainfall index [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x 2021-05-30T00:30:33Z International audience 1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while the frequency of extreme events increases. However, a poor understanding of these patterns presently hampers our predictive capabilities. 2. A recent climatic shift in the Sahel, from droughty to less severe condition, offers a good opportunity to test for an influence of the climatic regime on the response of organisms to their environment. Using a long-term capture–mark–recapture data set on a white stork ( Ciconia ciconia ) population wintering in Sahel, we investigated potential change in the impact of environmental conditions on survival and recruitment probabilities between 1981 and 2003. 3. We observed a decrease in the strength of the link between survival and Sahel rainfall during the last decade, down to a nondetectable level. Whether Sahel climate was found to affect the survival of storks under droughty conditions, individuals did not seem to respond to climatic variation when precipitation was more abundant. 4. This result gives evidence to a nonlinear response of a migrant bird to wintering environment. Present climate seems to fluctuate within a range of condition providing enough resources to maximize stork's survival. It suggests that whereas inter-annual variability impacted individuals, pluri-annual average condition affected the intensity of this impact. Such pattern may be more widespread than thought, and its modelling will be crucial to predict the impact of future climate change on population dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Journal of Animal Ecology 77 6 1143 1152 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Ciconia ciconia juvenile and adult survival North Atlantic oscillation recruitment Sahel rainfall index [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
Ciconia ciconia juvenile and adult survival North Atlantic oscillation recruitment Sahel rainfall index [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Nevoux, Marie Barbraud, Jean-Claude Barbraud, Christophe Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
topic_facet |
Ciconia ciconia juvenile and adult survival North Atlantic oscillation recruitment Sahel rainfall index [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience 1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while the frequency of extreme events increases. However, a poor understanding of these patterns presently hampers our predictive capabilities. 2. A recent climatic shift in the Sahel, from droughty to less severe condition, offers a good opportunity to test for an influence of the climatic regime on the response of organisms to their environment. Using a long-term capture–mark–recapture data set on a white stork ( Ciconia ciconia ) population wintering in Sahel, we investigated potential change in the impact of environmental conditions on survival and recruitment probabilities between 1981 and 2003. 3. We observed a decrease in the strength of the link between survival and Sahel rainfall during the last decade, down to a nondetectable level. Whether Sahel climate was found to affect the survival of storks under droughty conditions, individuals did not seem to respond to climatic variation when precipitation was more abundant. 4. This result gives evidence to a nonlinear response of a migrant bird to wintering environment. Present climate seems to fluctuate within a range of condition providing enough resources to maximize stork's survival. It suggests that whereas inter-annual variability impacted individuals, pluri-annual average condition affected the intensity of this impact. Such pattern may be more widespread than thought, and its modelling will be crucial to predict the impact of future climate change on population dynamics. |
author2 |
Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Groupe Ornithologique Aunis-Saintonge La Nougerée Région Poitou-Charentes |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nevoux, Marie Barbraud, Jean-Claude Barbraud, Christophe |
author_facet |
Nevoux, Marie Barbraud, Jean-Claude Barbraud, Christophe |
author_sort |
Nevoux, Marie |
title |
Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
title_short |
Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
title_full |
Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
title_sort |
nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0021-8790 EISSN: 1365-2656 Journal of Animal Ecology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 Journal of Animal Ecology, Wiley, 2008, 77 (6), pp.1143-1152. ⟨10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/18624741 hal-00362170 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00362170 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x PRODINRA: 265626 PUBMED: 18624741 WOS: 000260052400009 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01435.x |
container_title |
Journal of Animal Ecology |
container_volume |
77 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1143 |
op_container_end_page |
1152 |
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1766134351565684736 |