Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records
International audience Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the No...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00317321v1 2023-11-12T04:23:09+01:00 Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. Faculdade de Ciências Universidade do Porto = University of Porto 2006-04-08 https://hal.science/hal-00317321 https://hal.science/hal-00317321/document https://hal.science/hal-00317321/file/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union hal-00317321 https://hal.science/hal-00317321 https://hal.science/hal-00317321/document https://hal.science/hal-00317321/file/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0992-7689 EISSN: 1432-0576 Annales Geophysicae https://hal.science/hal-00317321 Annales Geophysicae, 2006, 22 (5), pp.1465-1472 [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2006 ftccsdartic 2023-10-21T23:07:29Z International audience Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with long and continuous records. Much research effort on mean sea level studies has been focused on identifying long-term linear trends, usually estimated through least-squares fitting of a deterministic function. Here, we estimate nonparametric and robust trends using lowess, a robust smoothing procedure based on locally weighted regression. This approach is more flexible than a linear trend to describe the deterministic part of the variation in tide gauge records, which has a complex structure. A common trend pattern of reduced sea levels around 1975 is found in all the analysed records and interpreted as the result of hydrological and atmospheric forcing associated with drought conditions at the tide gauge sites. This feature is overlooked by a linear regression model. Moreover, nonlinear deterministic behaviour in the time series, such as the one identified, introduces a bias in linear trends determined from short and noisy records. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with long and continuous records. Much research effort on mean sea level studies has been focused on identifying long-term linear trends, usually estimated through least-squares fitting of a deterministic function. Here, we estimate nonparametric and robust trends using lowess, a robust smoothing procedure based on locally weighted regression. This approach is more flexible than a linear trend to describe the deterministic part of the variation in tide gauge records, which has a complex structure. A common trend pattern of reduced sea levels around 1975 is found in all the analysed records and interpreted as the result of hydrological and atmospheric forcing associated with drought conditions at the tide gauge sites. This feature is overlooked by a linear regression model. Moreover, nonlinear deterministic behaviour in the time series, such as the one identified, introduces a bias in linear trends determined from short and noisy records. |
author2 |
Faculdade de Ciências Universidade do Porto = University of Porto |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. |
author_facet |
Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. |
author_sort |
Barbosa, S. M. |
title |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_short |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_full |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_sort |
nonlinear sea level trends from european tide gauge records |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00317321 https://hal.science/hal-00317321/document https://hal.science/hal-00317321/file/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0992-7689 EISSN: 1432-0576 Annales Geophysicae https://hal.science/hal-00317321 Annales Geophysicae, 2006, 22 (5), pp.1465-1472 |
op_relation |
hal-00317321 https://hal.science/hal-00317321 https://hal.science/hal-00317321/document https://hal.science/hal-00317321/file/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782338013977640960 |