Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000
International audience A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May?October) part of the year in the period 1976?2000. Two kinds of regressors w...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2003
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151/document https://hal.science/hal-00317151/file/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf |
id |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00317151v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00317151v1 2023-11-12T04:22:27+01:00 Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 Krzy?cin, J. W. Institute of Geophysics 2003 https://hal.science/hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151/document https://hal.science/hal-00317151/file/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151/document https://hal.science/hal-00317151/file/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0992-7689 EISSN: 1432-0576 Annales Geophysicae https://hal.science/hal-00317151 Annales Geophysicae, 2003, 21 (8), pp.1887-1896 [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2003 ftccsdartic 2023-10-21T23:07:42Z International audience A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May?October) part of the year in the period 1976?2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Krzy?cin, J. W. Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May?October) part of the year in the period 1976?2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. |
author2 |
Institute of Geophysics |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krzy?cin, J. W. |
author_facet |
Krzy?cin, J. W. |
author_sort |
Krzy?cin, J. W. |
title |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
title_short |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
title_full |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
title_sort |
nonlinear (mars) modeling of long-term variations of surface uv-b radiation as revealed from the analysis of belsk, poland data for the period 1976?2000 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151/document https://hal.science/hal-00317151/file/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0992-7689 EISSN: 1432-0576 Annales Geophysicae https://hal.science/hal-00317151 Annales Geophysicae, 2003, 21 (8), pp.1887-1896 |
op_relation |
hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151 https://hal.science/hal-00317151/document https://hal.science/hal-00317151/file/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782337495277502464 |