Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis
International audience For many years, ion and gas content data have been collected from the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. In the last ten years, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 have occurred within 250 km of the wells. In a previous study,...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00301557v1 2023-05-15T16:59:09+02:00 Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis Biagi, P. F. Piccolo, R. Ermini, A. Fujinawa, Y. Kingsley, S. P. Khatkevich, Y. M. Gordeev, E. I. Department of Physics Bari Università degli studi di Bari Aldo Moro (UNIBA) Dept. of Physics and Energy Science and Technology National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) Sheffield Centre for Earth Observation Science University of Sheffield Sheffield Experimental and Methodical Seismological Dept. 2001 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/file/nhess-1-9-2001.pdf en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union hal-00301557 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/file/nhess-1-9-2001.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2001, 1 (1/2), pp.9-14 [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2001 ftccsdartic 2021-12-12T06:19:44Z International audience For many years, ion and gas content data have been collected from the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. In the last ten years, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 have occurred within 250 km of the wells. In a previous study, we investigated the possibility that the hydrogeochemical time series contained precursors. The technique used was to assume that each signal with an amplitude of three times the standard deviation is an irregularity and we then defined anomalies as irregularities occurring simultaneously in the data for more than one parameter at each well. Using this method, we identified 11 anomalies with 8 of them being possible successes and 3 being failures as earthquake precursors. Precursors were obtained for all five earthquakes that we considered. In this paper, we allow for the cross-correlation found between the gas data sets and in some cases, between the ion data sets. No cross-correlation has been found between gas and ion content data. Any correlation undermines the idea that an anomaly might be identified from irregularities appearing simultaneously on different parameters at each site. To refine the technique, we re-examine the hydrogeochemical data and define as anomalies those irregularities occurring simultaneously only in the data of two or more uncorrelated parameters. We then restricted the analysis to the cases of just the gas content data and the ion content data. In the first case, we found 6 successes and 2 failures, and in the second case, we found only 3 successes. In the first case, the precursors appear only for three of the five earthquakes we considered, and in the second case, only for two, but these are the earthquakes nearest to the wells. Interestingly, it shows that when a strict set of rules for defining an anomaly is used, the method produces only successes and when less restrictive rules are used, earthquakes further from the well are implicated, but at the cost of false alarms being ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Kamchatka Peninsula Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Kamchatka Peninsula ENVELOPE(160.000,160.000,56.000,56.000) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Biagi, P. F. Piccolo, R. Ermini, A. Fujinawa, Y. Kingsley, S. P. Khatkevich, Y. M. Gordeev, E. I. Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis |
topic_facet |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience For many years, ion and gas content data have been collected from the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. In the last ten years, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 have occurred within 250 km of the wells. In a previous study, we investigated the possibility that the hydrogeochemical time series contained precursors. The technique used was to assume that each signal with an amplitude of three times the standard deviation is an irregularity and we then defined anomalies as irregularities occurring simultaneously in the data for more than one parameter at each well. Using this method, we identified 11 anomalies with 8 of them being possible successes and 3 being failures as earthquake precursors. Precursors were obtained for all five earthquakes that we considered. In this paper, we allow for the cross-correlation found between the gas data sets and in some cases, between the ion data sets. No cross-correlation has been found between gas and ion content data. Any correlation undermines the idea that an anomaly might be identified from irregularities appearing simultaneously on different parameters at each site. To refine the technique, we re-examine the hydrogeochemical data and define as anomalies those irregularities occurring simultaneously only in the data of two or more uncorrelated parameters. We then restricted the analysis to the cases of just the gas content data and the ion content data. In the first case, we found 6 successes and 2 failures, and in the second case, we found only 3 successes. In the first case, the precursors appear only for three of the five earthquakes we considered, and in the second case, only for two, but these are the earthquakes nearest to the wells. Interestingly, it shows that when a strict set of rules for defining an anomaly is used, the method produces only successes and when less restrictive rules are used, earthquakes further from the well are implicated, but at the cost of false alarms being ... |
author2 |
Department of Physics Bari Università degli studi di Bari Aldo Moro (UNIBA) Dept. of Physics and Energy Science and Technology National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) Sheffield Centre for Earth Observation Science University of Sheffield Sheffield Experimental and Methodical Seismological Dept. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Biagi, P. F. Piccolo, R. Ermini, A. Fujinawa, Y. Kingsley, S. P. Khatkevich, Y. M. Gordeev, E. I. |
author_facet |
Biagi, P. F. Piccolo, R. Ermini, A. Fujinawa, Y. Kingsley, S. P. Khatkevich, Y. M. Gordeev, E. I. |
author_sort |
Biagi, P. F. |
title |
Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis |
title_short |
Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis |
title_full |
Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis |
title_fullStr |
Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka: further analysis |
title_sort |
hydrogeochemical precursors of strong earthquakes in kamchatka: further analysis |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/file/nhess-1-9-2001.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(160.000,160.000,56.000,56.000) |
geographic |
Kamchatka Peninsula |
geographic_facet |
Kamchatka Peninsula |
genre |
Kamchatka Kamchatka Peninsula |
genre_facet |
Kamchatka Kamchatka Peninsula |
op_source |
ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2001, 1 (1/2), pp.9-14 |
op_relation |
hal-00301557 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301557/file/nhess-1-9-2001.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766051363598368768 |