Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century
International audience The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty on projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00298197v1 2023-05-15T14:57:54+02:00 Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître (UCL-ASTR) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) 2007-08-24 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/file/cpd-3-999-2007.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) hal-00298197 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/file/cpd-3-999-2007.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9340 EISSN: 1814-9359 Climate of the Past Discussions https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197 Climate of the Past Discussions, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2007, 3 (4), pp.999-1020 [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftccsdartic 2021-10-03T00:43:25Z International audience The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty on projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes for the early Holocene and for the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing to reduce this uncertainty. Using the limited information presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes for the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century are not consistent with recent observations. Using this evidence based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. For a faster increase in those concentrations, the Arctic Ocean would become almost ice-free in summer as early as 2060 AD. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
topic_facet |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty on projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes for the early Holocene and for the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing to reduce this uncertainty. Using the limited information presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes for the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century are not consistent with recent observations. Using this evidence based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. For a faster increase in those concentrations, the Arctic Ocean would become almost ice-free in summer as early as 2060 AD. |
author2 |
Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître (UCL-ASTR) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. |
author_facet |
Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. |
author_sort |
Goosse, H. |
title |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_short |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_full |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_sort |
information on the early holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/file/cpd-3-999-2007.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9340 EISSN: 1814-9359 Climate of the Past Discussions https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197 Climate of the Past Discussions, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2007, 3 (4), pp.999-1020 |
op_relation |
hal-00298197 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298197/file/cpd-3-999-2007.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766329993669902336 |