The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle
International audience The significance of the apparent 1470 years cycle in the recurrence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, observed in the Greenland ice cores, is debated. Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00298164v1 2024-02-11T10:04:23+01:00 The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle Ditlevsen, P. D. Andersen, K. K. Svensson, A. Niels Bohr Institute Copenhagen (NBI) Faculty of Science Copenhagen University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH) 2006-12-12 https://hal.science/hal-00298164 https://hal.science/hal-00298164/document https://hal.science/hal-00298164/file/cpd-2-1277-2006.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) hal-00298164 https://hal.science/hal-00298164 https://hal.science/hal-00298164/document https://hal.science/hal-00298164/file/cpd-2-1277-2006.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9340 EISSN: 1814-9359 Climate of the Past Discussions https://hal.science/hal-00298164 Climate of the Past Discussions, 2006, 2 (6), pp.1277-1292 [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2006 ftccsdartic 2024-01-14T00:35:40Z International audience The significance of the apparent 1470 years cycle in the recurrence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, observed in the Greenland ice cores, is debated. Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence. This is also the case for the GISP2 dating, except in the case where the DO9 event is omitted from the record. Whether or not the record shows a truly periodic beating has strong implications for identifying the underlying cause. If the recurrence is periodic it suggests an external cause. If the recurrence of DO events is not periodic it points to triggering mechanisms internal to the climate system being manifested at the millennial timescale. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice cores NGRIP Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Ditlevsen, P. D. Andersen, K. K. Svensson, A. The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
topic_facet |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience The significance of the apparent 1470 years cycle in the recurrence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, observed in the Greenland ice cores, is debated. Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence. This is also the case for the GISP2 dating, except in the case where the DO9 event is omitted from the record. Whether or not the record shows a truly periodic beating has strong implications for identifying the underlying cause. If the recurrence is periodic it suggests an external cause. If the recurrence of DO events is not periodic it points to triggering mechanisms internal to the climate system being manifested at the millennial timescale. |
author2 |
Niels Bohr Institute Copenhagen (NBI) Faculty of Science Copenhagen University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ditlevsen, P. D. Andersen, K. K. Svensson, A. |
author_facet |
Ditlevsen, P. D. Andersen, K. K. Svensson, A. |
author_sort |
Ditlevsen, P. D. |
title |
The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
title_short |
The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
title_full |
The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
title_fullStr |
The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
title_full_unstemmed |
The DO-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
title_sort |
do-climate events are noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00298164 https://hal.science/hal-00298164/document https://hal.science/hal-00298164/file/cpd-2-1277-2006.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice cores NGRIP |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice cores NGRIP |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9340 EISSN: 1814-9359 Climate of the Past Discussions https://hal.science/hal-00298164 Climate of the Past Discussions, 2006, 2 (6), pp.1277-1292 |
op_relation |
hal-00298164 https://hal.science/hal-00298164 https://hal.science/hal-00298164/document https://hal.science/hal-00298164/file/cpd-2-1277-2006.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1790600980690108416 |