Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century
International audience The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00298097v1 2023-05-15T14:29:16+02:00 Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître (UCL-ASTR) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) 2007-12-20 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/file/cp-3-683-2007.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) hal-00298097 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/file/cp-3-683-2007.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097 Climate of the Past, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2007, 3 (4), pp.683-692 [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftccsdartic 2021-10-03T00:43:25Z International audience The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the reduction of this uncertainty. Using the limited number of records presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent with recent observations. Using this very complementary information based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus strongly indicate that additional proxy records of the early Holocene sea ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to improve our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
topic_facet |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the reduction of this uncertainty. Using the limited number of records presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent with recent observations. Using this very complementary information based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus strongly indicate that additional proxy records of the early Holocene sea ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to improve our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic. |
author2 |
Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître (UCL-ASTR) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. |
author_facet |
Goosse, H. Driesschaert, E. Fichefet, T. Loutre, M.-F. |
author_sort |
Goosse, H. |
title |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_short |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_full |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_sort |
information on the early holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/file/cp-3-683-2007.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097 Climate of the Past, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2007, 3 (4), pp.683-692 |
op_relation |
hal-00298097 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298097/file/cp-3-683-2007.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766303327869468672 |