Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations
International audience Understanding how anthropically induced interacting factors may compromise the viability of a particular species or population necessitates expressing them in terms of quantitative effects on population dynamics. The use of mechanistic models to assess these effects is especia...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00186510 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-00186510v1 2024-02-27T08:45:09+00:00 Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations Jiguet, Frédéric Robert, A. Micol, Thierry Barbraud, Christophe Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation (CESCO) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) L'Institut polaire français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV) Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche (M.E.N.E.S.R.) 2007-01-16 https://hal.science/hal-00186510 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x hal-00186510 https://hal.science/hal-00186510 doi:10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x ISSN: 1367-9430 Animal Conservation https://hal.science/hal-00186510 Animal Conservation, 2007, 10, pp.245-253. ⟨10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x⟩ stochasticity catastrophic survival extinction risk population model predator vagrancy rat eradication [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x 2024-01-28T03:19:29Z International audience Understanding how anthropically induced interacting factors may compromise the viability of a particular species or population necessitates expressing them in terms of quantitative effects on population dynamics. The use of mechanistic models to assess these effects is especially helpful to management plans when the causes of species decline are multi-factorial and potentially interacting. Here, we took the opportunity of observed predation by a vagrant falcon on a rare and endemic seabird to develop a population dynamics model encompassing multiple deterministic and stochastic threats. The Macgillivray's prion Pachyptila macgillivrayi, with a world breeding population of c. 540 individuals confined to one ratfree islet off Saint-Paul Island (Southern Indian Ocean), faces high extinction risk from vagrant falcon predation. Extinction is predicted to occur within 200 years if one falcon preys on prions every 5 years, with predation occurring either on breeders only or also on non-breeders. The minimum initial prion population size ensuring a low extinction risk increased linearly with the annual probability of predator occurrence. Therefore, increasing the initial population size is a useful management option to help the prion face stochastic predation. Recent rat eradication on Saint-Paul Island helps the prion to face this threat as it released the carrying capacity of the colony, but the earlier population size might never be recovered if falcons carry on preying on prions frequently. This rare burrowing petrel provides a remarkable case study of an endemic insular species threatened with predation by alien mammals, which reduced historical population size dramatically, and by genuine vagrants as catastrophic events that reduce population growth and increase its temporal variance, and might cause the extinction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Saint-Paul Island Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Indian Saint-Paul ENVELOPE(-57.715,-57.715,51.467,51.467) Animal Conservation 10 2 245 253 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
stochasticity catastrophic survival extinction risk population model predator vagrancy rat eradication [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
stochasticity catastrophic survival extinction risk population model predator vagrancy rat eradication [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Jiguet, Frédéric Robert, A. Micol, Thierry Barbraud, Christophe Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
topic_facet |
stochasticity catastrophic survival extinction risk population model predator vagrancy rat eradication [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Understanding how anthropically induced interacting factors may compromise the viability of a particular species or population necessitates expressing them in terms of quantitative effects on population dynamics. The use of mechanistic models to assess these effects is especially helpful to management plans when the causes of species decline are multi-factorial and potentially interacting. Here, we took the opportunity of observed predation by a vagrant falcon on a rare and endemic seabird to develop a population dynamics model encompassing multiple deterministic and stochastic threats. The Macgillivray's prion Pachyptila macgillivrayi, with a world breeding population of c. 540 individuals confined to one ratfree islet off Saint-Paul Island (Southern Indian Ocean), faces high extinction risk from vagrant falcon predation. Extinction is predicted to occur within 200 years if one falcon preys on prions every 5 years, with predation occurring either on breeders only or also on non-breeders. The minimum initial prion population size ensuring a low extinction risk increased linearly with the annual probability of predator occurrence. Therefore, increasing the initial population size is a useful management option to help the prion face stochastic predation. Recent rat eradication on Saint-Paul Island helps the prion to face this threat as it released the carrying capacity of the colony, but the earlier population size might never be recovered if falcons carry on preying on prions frequently. This rare burrowing petrel provides a remarkable case study of an endemic insular species threatened with predation by alien mammals, which reduced historical population size dramatically, and by genuine vagrants as catastrophic events that reduce population growth and increase its temporal variance, and might cause the extinction. |
author2 |
Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation (CESCO) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) L'Institut polaire français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV) Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche (M.E.N.E.S.R.) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jiguet, Frédéric Robert, A. Micol, Thierry Barbraud, Christophe |
author_facet |
Jiguet, Frédéric Robert, A. Micol, Thierry Barbraud, Christophe |
author_sort |
Jiguet, Frédéric |
title |
Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
title_short |
Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
title_full |
Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
title_sort |
quantifying stochastic and deterministic threats to island seabirds : last endemic prions face extinction from falcon peregrinations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00186510 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.715,-57.715,51.467,51.467) |
geographic |
Indian Saint-Paul |
geographic_facet |
Indian Saint-Paul |
genre |
Saint-Paul Island |
genre_facet |
Saint-Paul Island |
op_source |
ISSN: 1367-9430 Animal Conservation https://hal.science/hal-00186510 Animal Conservation, 2007, 10, pp.245-253. ⟨10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x hal-00186510 https://hal.science/hal-00186510 doi:10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2007.00100.x |
container_title |
Animal Conservation |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
245 |
op_container_end_page |
253 |
_version_ |
1792054231225597952 |