Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
International audience Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/document https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/file/lee.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) UMR 5805 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie de Bordeaux (I2M) École Nationale Supérieure d'Arts et Métiers (ENSAM) Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM)-Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010) European Project: 282672,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,EMBRACE(2011) European Project: 312979,EC:FP7:INFRA,FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2012-1,IS-ENES2(2013) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine |
author_facet |
Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine |
author_sort |
Sgubin, Giovanni |
title |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_short |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_full |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_fullStr |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_sort |
abrupt cooling over the north atlantic in modern climate models |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/document https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/file/lee.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2017, 8, pp.14375. ⟨10.1038/ncomms14375⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/ncomms14375 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282672/EU/Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change/EMBRACE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/312979/EU/Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2/IS-ENES2 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/document https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/file/lee.pdf doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766302168885755904 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:cea-02138768v1 2023-05-15T14:28:02+02:00 Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) UMR 5805 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie de Bordeaux (I2M) École Nationale Supérieure d'Arts et Métiers (ENSAM) Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM)-Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010) European Project: 282672,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,EMBRACE(2011) European Project: 312979,EC:FP7:INFRA,FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2012-1,IS-ENES2(2013) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) 2017-04 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/document https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/file/lee.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/ncomms14375 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282672/EU/Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change/EMBRACE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/312979/EU/Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2/IS-ENES2 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/document https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768/file/lee.pdf doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02138768 Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2017, 8, pp.14375. ⟨10.1038/ncomms14375⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 2021-12-19T01:57:14Z International audience Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Nature Communications 8 1 |