Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations
Experimental exposure of early life stage bivalves has documented negative effects of elevated pCO2 on survival and growth, but the population consequences of these effects are unknown. We substituted laboratory responses into baseline population models of northern quahog Mercenaria mercenaria and b...
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ftcarolinadr:cdr.lib.unc.edu:p26774861 2024-05-12T08:08:11+00:00 Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations Grear, J.S. O'Leary, C.A. Nye, J.A. Tettelbach, S.T. Gobler, C.J. 2020 https://doi.org/10.17615/7bpg-6n33 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z English eng Inter-Research https://doi.org/10.17615/7bpg-6n33 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z Marine Ecology Progress Series, 633 Ocean acidification Inverse demography Bivalves Matrix model Population Coastal acidification Article 2020 ftcarolinadr https://doi.org/10.17615/7bpg-6n33 2024-04-17T15:32:24Z Experimental exposure of early life stage bivalves has documented negative effects of elevated pCO2 on survival and growth, but the population consequences of these effects are unknown. We substituted laboratory responses into baseline population models of northern quahog Mercenaria mercenaria and bay scallop Argopecten irradians. The models were constructed using inverse demography with time series of size-structured field data from New York, USA, whereas the stress-response relationships were developed using data from published laboratory studies. We used stochastic projections and diffusion approximations of extinction probability to estimate cumulative risk of 50% population decline during 5 yr projections at pCO2 levels of 400, 800, and 1200 μatm. Although the A. irradians field population exhibited higher growth (12% yr-1) than the declining M. mercenaria population (-8% yr-1), cumulative risk was higher due to variance in the stochastic growth rate estimate (log λs = -0.02, σ2 = 0.24). This 5 yr risk increased from 56% at 400 μatm to 99 and >99% at 800 and 1200 μatm, respectively. For M. mercenaria (log λs = -0.09, σ2 = 0.01), 5 yr risk was 25, 79, and 97% at 400, 800, and 1200 μatm, respectively. These estimates could be improved with detailed consideration of harvest, disease, restocking, compensatory re sponses, and interactions between these and other effects. However, results clearly indicate that early life stage responses to plausible levels of pCO2 enrichment have the potential to cause significant increases in risk to these marine bivalve populations. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Ocean acidification Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
op_collection_id |
ftcarolinadr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ocean acidification Inverse demography Bivalves Matrix model Population Coastal acidification |
spellingShingle |
Ocean acidification Inverse demography Bivalves Matrix model Population Coastal acidification Grear, J.S. O'Leary, C.A. Nye, J.A. Tettelbach, S.T. Gobler, C.J. Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
topic_facet |
Ocean acidification Inverse demography Bivalves Matrix model Population Coastal acidification |
description |
Experimental exposure of early life stage bivalves has documented negative effects of elevated pCO2 on survival and growth, but the population consequences of these effects are unknown. We substituted laboratory responses into baseline population models of northern quahog Mercenaria mercenaria and bay scallop Argopecten irradians. The models were constructed using inverse demography with time series of size-structured field data from New York, USA, whereas the stress-response relationships were developed using data from published laboratory studies. We used stochastic projections and diffusion approximations of extinction probability to estimate cumulative risk of 50% population decline during 5 yr projections at pCO2 levels of 400, 800, and 1200 μatm. Although the A. irradians field population exhibited higher growth (12% yr-1) than the declining M. mercenaria population (-8% yr-1), cumulative risk was higher due to variance in the stochastic growth rate estimate (log λs = -0.02, σ2 = 0.24). This 5 yr risk increased from 56% at 400 μatm to 99 and >99% at 800 and 1200 μatm, respectively. For M. mercenaria (log λs = -0.09, σ2 = 0.01), 5 yr risk was 25, 79, and 97% at 400, 800, and 1200 μatm, respectively. These estimates could be improved with detailed consideration of harvest, disease, restocking, compensatory re sponses, and interactions between these and other effects. However, results clearly indicate that early life stage responses to plausible levels of pCO2 enrichment have the potential to cause significant increases in risk to these marine bivalve populations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Grear, J.S. O'Leary, C.A. Nye, J.A. Tettelbach, S.T. Gobler, C.J. |
author_facet |
Grear, J.S. O'Leary, C.A. Nye, J.A. Tettelbach, S.T. Gobler, C.J. |
author_sort |
Grear, J.S. |
title |
Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
title_short |
Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
title_full |
Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
title_fullStr |
Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of coastal acidification on North Atlantic bivalves: Interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
title_sort |
effects of coastal acidification on north atlantic bivalves: interpreting laboratory responses in the context of in situ populations |
publisher |
Inter-Research |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17615/7bpg-6n33 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z |
genre |
North Atlantic Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 633 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.17615/7bpg-6n33 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/s7526p61z |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17615/7bpg-6n33 |
_version_ |
1798851097878593536 |