Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean
Recent increases in Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean have attracted considerable scientific attention but remain poorly understood. Previous studies have examined fire frequency, permafrost thaw, and dam construction as potential mechanisms. Here we focus on precipitation as a driver, us...
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ftcarolinadr:cdr.lib.unc.edu:m326mb76c 2023-10-01T03:53:47+02:00 Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean Pavelsky, T.M. Smith, L.C. College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geological Sciences 2006 https://doi.org/10.17615/atsz-7h48 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154 English eng Blackwell Publishing Ltd https://doi.org/10.17615/atsz-7h48 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154 http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 111(21) Precipitation (meteorology) Fires river basin river discharge precipitation (climatology) thawing Permafrost Dams Eurasian Basin Rivers Arctic Ocean Discharge (fluid mechanics) data set Statistical methods Article 2006 ftcarolinadr https://doi.org/10.17615/atsz-7h48 2023-09-02T22:30:51Z Recent increases in Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean have attracted considerable scientific attention but remain poorly understood. Previous studies have examined fire frequency, permafrost thaw, and dam construction as potential mechanisms. Here we focus on precipitation as a driver, using 198 dam-free Eurasian river basins ranging from 151 to 897,000 km2. Using R-ArcticNet monthly discharge data and four observational and reanalysis precipitation products from the University of Delaware (UDel), University of Washington (UW), NCEP/NCAR (NCEP), and ECMWF (ERA-40), we (1) assess which precipitation data sets best capture spatially realistic patterns as inferred from agreement with river discharge (198 basins; 1958-1989); and (2) determine to what extent observed discharge trends follow Udel precipitation changes (66 basins; 1936-1999). Results from the precipitation intercomparison show for the 74 (of 198) basins displaying statistically significant discharge trends (24 positive, 50 negative; -74% to +89%, mean = -1%), interpolated precipitation products significantly outperform reanalysis data sets, perhaps owing to the fine-scale resolutions examined here. Agreement between discharge and precipitation is 42-86% and 42-97% for UDel and UW, respectively, but approaches zero for NCEP and ERA-40. Comparison of precipitation and discharge trends suggests that precipitation increases play a significant role in observed long-term discharge increases. For the 40 (of 66) basins displaying statistically significant trends in discharge (32 positive, 8 negative; -23% to +50%, mean = +11%), 29 display corresponding trends in precipitation with 35-62% agreement between discharge and precipitation trend. Comparison of discharge trends with basin permafrost properties indicates a possible, but not strong role for permafrost thaw in the observed increases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean ArcticNet permafrost Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
op_collection_id |
ftcarolinadr |
language |
English |
topic |
Precipitation (meteorology) Fires river basin river discharge precipitation (climatology) thawing Permafrost Dams Eurasian Basin Rivers Arctic Ocean Discharge (fluid mechanics) data set Statistical methods |
spellingShingle |
Precipitation (meteorology) Fires river basin river discharge precipitation (climatology) thawing Permafrost Dams Eurasian Basin Rivers Arctic Ocean Discharge (fluid mechanics) data set Statistical methods Pavelsky, T.M. Smith, L.C. Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean |
topic_facet |
Precipitation (meteorology) Fires river basin river discharge precipitation (climatology) thawing Permafrost Dams Eurasian Basin Rivers Arctic Ocean Discharge (fluid mechanics) data set Statistical methods |
description |
Recent increases in Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean have attracted considerable scientific attention but remain poorly understood. Previous studies have examined fire frequency, permafrost thaw, and dam construction as potential mechanisms. Here we focus on precipitation as a driver, using 198 dam-free Eurasian river basins ranging from 151 to 897,000 km2. Using R-ArcticNet monthly discharge data and four observational and reanalysis precipitation products from the University of Delaware (UDel), University of Washington (UW), NCEP/NCAR (NCEP), and ECMWF (ERA-40), we (1) assess which precipitation data sets best capture spatially realistic patterns as inferred from agreement with river discharge (198 basins; 1958-1989); and (2) determine to what extent observed discharge trends follow Udel precipitation changes (66 basins; 1936-1999). Results from the precipitation intercomparison show for the 74 (of 198) basins displaying statistically significant discharge trends (24 positive, 50 negative; -74% to +89%, mean = -1%), interpolated precipitation products significantly outperform reanalysis data sets, perhaps owing to the fine-scale resolutions examined here. Agreement between discharge and precipitation is 42-86% and 42-97% for UDel and UW, respectively, but approaches zero for NCEP and ERA-40. Comparison of precipitation and discharge trends suggests that precipitation increases play a significant role in observed long-term discharge increases. For the 40 (of 66) basins displaying statistically significant trends in discharge (32 positive, 8 negative; -23% to +50%, mean = +11%), 29 display corresponding trends in precipitation with 35-62% agreement between discharge and precipitation trend. Comparison of discharge trends with basin permafrost properties indicates a possible, but not strong role for permafrost thaw in the observed increases. |
author2 |
College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geological Sciences |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pavelsky, T.M. Smith, L.C. |
author_facet |
Pavelsky, T.M. Smith, L.C. |
author_sort |
Pavelsky, T.M. |
title |
Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean |
title_short |
Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean |
title_full |
Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean |
title_sort |
intercomparison of four global precipitation data sets and their correlation with increased eurasian river discharge to the arctic ocean |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17615/atsz-7h48 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean ArcticNet permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean ArcticNet permafrost |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 111(21) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.17615/atsz-7h48 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/8623j7154 |
op_rights |
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17615/atsz-7h48 |
_version_ |
1778520751125561344 |