Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach
Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a...
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ftcarolinadr:cdr.lib.unc.edu:fj236b521 2023-10-01T03:58:02+02:00 Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach Antolínez, J.A.A. Murray, A.B. Méndez, F.J. Moore, L.J. Farley, G. Wood, J. College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geological Sciences 2018 https://doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m English eng Blackwell Publishing Ltd https://doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123(2) hybrid downscaling large scale shoreline evolution climate change wave climate variability alongshore sediment transport Article 2018 ftcarolinadr https://doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35 2023-09-02T22:31:01Z Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
op_collection_id |
ftcarolinadr |
language |
English |
topic |
hybrid downscaling large scale shoreline evolution climate change wave climate variability alongshore sediment transport |
spellingShingle |
hybrid downscaling large scale shoreline evolution climate change wave climate variability alongshore sediment transport Antolínez, J.A.A. Murray, A.B. Méndez, F.J. Moore, L.J. Farley, G. Wood, J. Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
topic_facet |
hybrid downscaling large scale shoreline evolution climate change wave climate variability alongshore sediment transport |
description |
Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios. |
author2 |
College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geological Sciences |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Antolínez, J.A.A. Murray, A.B. Méndez, F.J. Moore, L.J. Farley, G. Wood, J. |
author_facet |
Antolínez, J.A.A. Murray, A.B. Méndez, F.J. Moore, L.J. Farley, G. Wood, J. |
author_sort |
Antolínez, J.A.A. |
title |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_short |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_full |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_fullStr |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_sort |
downscaling changing coastlines in a changing climate: the hybrid approach |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123(2) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/5m60r298m |
op_rights |
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35 |
_version_ |
1778530405108940800 |