Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium
BackgroundTools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.Methods and ResultsIndividual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Athe...
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ftcarolinadr:cdr.lib.unc.edu:br86bb09s 2023-11-12T04:19:33+01:00 Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium Alonso, A. Krijthe, B. P. Aspelund, T. Stepas, K. A. Pencina, M. J. Moser, C. B. Sinner, M. F. Sotoodehnia, N. Fontes, J. D. Janssens, A. C. J. W. Kronmal, R. A. Magnani, J. W. Witteman, J. C. Chamberlain, A. M. Lubitz, S. A. Schnabel, R. B. Agarwal, S. K. McManus, D. D. Ellinor, P. T. Larson, M. G. Burke, G. L. Launer, L. J. Hofman, A. Levy, D. Gottdiener, J. S. Kaab, S. Couper, D. Harris, T. B. Soliman, E. Z. Stricker, B. H. C. Gudnason, V. Heckbert, S. R. 2013 https://doi.org/10.17615/57gf-5866 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652 English eng https://doi.org/10.17615/57gf-5866 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652 http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ Journal of the American Heart Association - Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease, 2(2) United States Female 80 and over Heart Failure atrial fibrillation African Americans European Continental Ancestry Group Aged Iceland risk factors epidemiology Cohort Studies Myocardial Infarction Original Research Incidence Male Smoking Netherlands Risk Assessment Age Factors Hypertension Humans Proportional Hazards Models Middle Aged Diabetes Mellitus Article 2013 ftcarolinadr https://doi.org/10.17615/57gf-5866 2023-10-14T22:29:29Z BackgroundTools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.Methods and ResultsIndividual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, −0.0032; 95% CI, −0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C‐statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C‐statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.ConclusionA risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
op_collection_id |
ftcarolinadr |
language |
English |
topic |
United States Female 80 and over Heart Failure atrial fibrillation African Americans European Continental Ancestry Group Aged Iceland risk factors epidemiology Cohort Studies Myocardial Infarction Original Research Incidence Male Smoking Netherlands Risk Assessment Age Factors Hypertension Humans Proportional Hazards Models Middle Aged Diabetes Mellitus |
spellingShingle |
United States Female 80 and over Heart Failure atrial fibrillation African Americans European Continental Ancestry Group Aged Iceland risk factors epidemiology Cohort Studies Myocardial Infarction Original Research Incidence Male Smoking Netherlands Risk Assessment Age Factors Hypertension Humans Proportional Hazards Models Middle Aged Diabetes Mellitus Alonso, A. Krijthe, B. P. Aspelund, T. Stepas, K. A. Pencina, M. J. Moser, C. B. Sinner, M. F. Sotoodehnia, N. Fontes, J. D. Janssens, A. C. J. W. Kronmal, R. A. Magnani, J. W. Witteman, J. C. Chamberlain, A. M. Lubitz, S. A. Schnabel, R. B. Agarwal, S. K. McManus, D. D. Ellinor, P. T. Larson, M. G. Burke, G. L. Launer, L. J. Hofman, A. Levy, D. Gottdiener, J. S. Kaab, S. Couper, D. Harris, T. B. Soliman, E. Z. Stricker, B. H. C. Gudnason, V. Heckbert, S. R. Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium |
topic_facet |
United States Female 80 and over Heart Failure atrial fibrillation African Americans European Continental Ancestry Group Aged Iceland risk factors epidemiology Cohort Studies Myocardial Infarction Original Research Incidence Male Smoking Netherlands Risk Assessment Age Factors Hypertension Humans Proportional Hazards Models Middle Aged Diabetes Mellitus |
description |
BackgroundTools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.Methods and ResultsIndividual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, −0.0032; 95% CI, −0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C‐statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C‐statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.ConclusionA risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alonso, A. Krijthe, B. P. Aspelund, T. Stepas, K. A. Pencina, M. J. Moser, C. B. Sinner, M. F. Sotoodehnia, N. Fontes, J. D. Janssens, A. C. J. W. Kronmal, R. A. Magnani, J. W. Witteman, J. C. Chamberlain, A. M. Lubitz, S. A. Schnabel, R. B. Agarwal, S. K. McManus, D. D. Ellinor, P. T. Larson, M. G. Burke, G. L. Launer, L. J. Hofman, A. Levy, D. Gottdiener, J. S. Kaab, S. Couper, D. Harris, T. B. Soliman, E. Z. Stricker, B. H. C. Gudnason, V. Heckbert, S. R. |
author_facet |
Alonso, A. Krijthe, B. P. Aspelund, T. Stepas, K. A. Pencina, M. J. Moser, C. B. Sinner, M. F. Sotoodehnia, N. Fontes, J. D. Janssens, A. C. J. W. Kronmal, R. A. Magnani, J. W. Witteman, J. C. Chamberlain, A. M. Lubitz, S. A. Schnabel, R. B. Agarwal, S. K. McManus, D. D. Ellinor, P. T. Larson, M. G. Burke, G. L. Launer, L. J. Hofman, A. Levy, D. Gottdiener, J. S. Kaab, S. Couper, D. Harris, T. B. Soliman, E. Z. Stricker, B. H. C. Gudnason, V. Heckbert, S. R. |
author_sort |
Alonso, A. |
title |
Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium |
title_short |
Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium |
title_full |
Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium |
title_fullStr |
Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium |
title_sort |
simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the charge-af consortium |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17615/57gf-5866 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Journal of the American Heart Association - Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease, 2(2) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.17615/57gf-5866 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/t435gm652 |
op_rights |
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17615/57gf-5866 |
_version_ |
1782335949027409920 |