Arctic Plant Migration by 2100: Comparing Predictions with Observations

• Main Author: Winters, Dahl
• Other Authors: College of Arts and Sciences, Curriculum in Environment and Ecology, Moody, Aaron
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2009
• Subjects: Arctic; Canada; Northwest Territories; Taymyr; Yukon; ACIA; Arctic Climate Impact Assessment; Climate change; Taymyr Peninsula; Siberia
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.17615/sxxy-nf94; https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/4f16c335k?file=thumbnail; https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/4f16c335k

Nowhere are the consequences of climate change greater than in the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment synthesized the potential impacts of climate change to Arctic ecosystems, including vegetation changes projected for 2100 using the BIOME4 dynamic vegetation model. In my research I synthesized empirical data from 30 studies of Arctic vegetation responses to climate change, and compared these data to the ACIA projected vegetation distribution for 2100. A general agreement between observed and projected changes was found, with exceptions due to regional variability and geographic clustering of the empirical data. There exist large areas of Siberia east of the Taymyr Peninsula and the Arctic Peninsula without empirical data, but are projected to undergo expansive change. Likewise, geographically limited empirical data have been published for large areas with no projected change in central Siberia and in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, Canada.