Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data
ABSTRACT. Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize...
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ftcarolinadr:cdr.lib.unc.edu:1j92gh502 2023-10-01T03:54:13+02:00 Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data Nicolson, Craig Berman, Matthew Thor West, Colin Kofinas, Gary P. Griffith, Brad Russell, Don Dugan, Darcy University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 2013 https://doi.org/10.17615/td41-1k18 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d English eng https://doi.org/10.17615/td41-1k18 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ Ecology and Society, 18(2) migration markovian subsistence hunting Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution caribou simulation Article 2013 ftcarolinadr https://doi.org/10.17615/td41-1k18 2023-09-02T22:31:05Z ABSTRACT. Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Rangifer tarandus Alaska Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) Arctic Canada |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Carolina Digital Repository (UNC - University of North Carolina) |
op_collection_id |
ftcarolinadr |
language |
English |
topic |
migration markovian subsistence hunting Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution caribou simulation |
spellingShingle |
migration markovian subsistence hunting Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution caribou simulation Nicolson, Craig Berman, Matthew Thor West, Colin Kofinas, Gary P. Griffith, Brad Russell, Don Dugan, Darcy Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
topic_facet |
migration markovian subsistence hunting Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution caribou simulation |
description |
ABSTRACT. Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range. |
author2 |
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nicolson, Craig Berman, Matthew Thor West, Colin Kofinas, Gary P. Griffith, Brad Russell, Don Dugan, Darcy |
author_facet |
Nicolson, Craig Berman, Matthew Thor West, Colin Kofinas, Gary P. Griffith, Brad Russell, Don Dugan, Darcy |
author_sort |
Nicolson, Craig |
title |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_short |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_full |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_sort |
seasonal climate variation and caribou availability: modeling sequential movement using satellite-relocation data |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17615/td41-1k18 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Rangifer tarandus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Rangifer tarandus Alaska |
op_source |
Ecology and Society, 18(2) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.17615/td41-1k18 https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d?file=thumbnail https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/c534fx93d |
op_rights |
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17615/td41-1k18 |
_version_ |
1778521627805351936 |