Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example
Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995 |
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ftcarnmellonufig:oai:figshare.com:article/6570995 2023-05-15T15:34:08+02:00 Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine de Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant 2018-06-30T00:01:00Z https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995 unknown doi:10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995 In Copyright Decision Making Scenarios Uncertainty Risk analysis Judgment Avian flu Text Journal contribution 2018 ftcarnmellonufig https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 2019-11-18T10:51:41Z Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Avian flu KiltHub Research from Carnegie Mellon University |
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KiltHub Research from Carnegie Mellon University |
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topic |
Decision Making Scenarios Uncertainty Risk analysis Judgment Avian flu |
spellingShingle |
Decision Making Scenarios Uncertainty Risk analysis Judgment Avian flu Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine de Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example |
topic_facet |
Decision Making Scenarios Uncertainty Risk analysis Judgment Avian flu |
description |
Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine de Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant |
author_facet |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine de Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant |
author_sort |
Baruch Fischhoff |
title |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example |
title_short |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example |
title_full |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example |
title_fullStr |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example |
title_sort |
analyzing disaster risks and plans: an avian flu example |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995 |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
doi:10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995 |
op_rights |
In Copyright |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 |
_version_ |
1766364641182613504 |