Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example

Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Baruch Fischhoff, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Ümit Güvenç, Denise Caruso, Larry Brilliant
Format: Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2018
Subjects:
Decision Making
Scenarios
Uncertainty
Risk analysis
Judgment
Avian flu
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1
https://figshare.com/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995
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Summary:Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic.

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