The variability of North American winter surface temperature and its relation to the sea surface temperature /

• Main Author: Li, Wei, 1982-
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: McGill University 2006
• Subjects: Ocean-atmosphere interaction > North America; North Atlantic oscillation; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=101604

The first two empirical orthogonal functions of the winter (DJF) surface air temperature (SAT) over North America are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern in the NCEP reanalysis. Lagged correlations between the North American SAT structures and the sea surface temperature (SST) were computed. There is a small lag between the tri-pole SST anomaly pattern of the North Atlantic Ocean and the first SAT mode. The second SAT mode lags the eastern Tropical Pacific SST anomaly by two months, associated with ENSO through the winter. A similar analysis is conducted on the seasonal forecasts to see if the forecast models capture the above links. GCM3 captures the ENSO forcing and has the PNA response. GEM captures the link between the SAT and the tripole SST anomaly pattern in North Atlantic. Although GEM captures the ENSO signal, it cannot form the PNA to further this tropical forcing into North America.