Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming
With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable...
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ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:98654 2023-05-15T14:26:53+02:00 Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. 2019-09-10 application/pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/98654/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/98654/1/s41598-019-49218-6.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190916-100610100 en eng Nature Publishing Group https://authors.library.caltech.edu/98654/1/s41598-019-49218-6.pdf Hwang, Jiwon and Choi, Yong-Sang and Yoo, Changhyun and Wang, Yuan and Su, Hui and Jiang, Jonathan H. (2019) Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming. Scientific Reports, 9 . Art. No. 13059. ISSN 2045-2322. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190916-100610100 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190916-100610100> cc_by CC-BY Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftcaltechauth https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 2021-11-18T18:52:22Z With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m^(−2) K^(−1) as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) Arctic Scientific Reports 9 1 |
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Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) |
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English |
description |
With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m^(−2) K^(−1) as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. |
spellingShingle |
Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
author_facet |
Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. |
author_sort |
Hwang, Jiwon |
title |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_short |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_full |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_fullStr |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_sort |
interpretation of the top-of-atmosphere energy flux for future arctic warming |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/98654/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/98654/1/s41598-019-49218-6.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190916-100610100 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/98654/1/s41598-019-49218-6.pdf Hwang, Jiwon and Choi, Yong-Sang and Yoo, Changhyun and Wang, Yuan and Su, Hui and Jiang, Jonathan H. (2019) Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming. Scientific Reports, 9 . Art. No. 13059. ISSN 2045-2322. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190916-100610100 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20190916-100610100> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
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9 |
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1 |
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1766300345623904256 |