Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability
This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths ne...
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American Meteorological Society
2015
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ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:56558 2023-05-15T14:57:17+02:00 Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability Schneider, Tapio Bischoff, Tobias Płotka, Hanna 2015-03 application/pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/1/jcli-d-14-00632.1.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/2/jcli-d-16-0096.1.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-152635552 en eng American Meteorological Society https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/1/jcli-d-14-00632.1.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/2/jcli-d-16-0096.1.pdf Schneider, Tapio and Bischoff, Tobias and Płotka, Hanna (2015) Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability. Journal of Climate, 28 (6). pp. 2312-2331. ISSN 0894-8755. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-152635552 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-152635552> other Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftcaltechauth https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1 2021-11-11T19:03:41Z This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths near the surface. Scaling arguments show that the reduction of meridional potential temperature gradients that accompanies polar amplification of global warming leads to a reduction of the synoptic temperature variance near the surface. This is confirmed in simulations of a wide range of climates with an idealized GCM. In comprehensive climate simulations (CMIP5), Arctic amplification of global warming similarly entails a large-scale reduction of the near-surface temperature variance in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in winter. The probability density functions of synoptic near-surface temperature variations in midlatitudes are statistically indistinguishable from Gaussian, both in reanalysis data and in a range of climates simulated with idealized and comprehensive GCMs. This indicates that changes in mean values and variances suffice to account for changes even in extreme synoptic temperature variations. Taken together, the results indicate that Arctic amplification of global warming leads to even less frequent cold outbreaks in Northern Hemisphere winter than a shift toward a warmer mean climate implies by itself. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) Arctic Journal of Climate 28 6 2312 2331 |
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Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) |
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English |
description |
This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths near the surface. Scaling arguments show that the reduction of meridional potential temperature gradients that accompanies polar amplification of global warming leads to a reduction of the synoptic temperature variance near the surface. This is confirmed in simulations of a wide range of climates with an idealized GCM. In comprehensive climate simulations (CMIP5), Arctic amplification of global warming similarly entails a large-scale reduction of the near-surface temperature variance in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in winter. The probability density functions of synoptic near-surface temperature variations in midlatitudes are statistically indistinguishable from Gaussian, both in reanalysis data and in a range of climates simulated with idealized and comprehensive GCMs. This indicates that changes in mean values and variances suffice to account for changes even in extreme synoptic temperature variations. Taken together, the results indicate that Arctic amplification of global warming leads to even less frequent cold outbreaks in Northern Hemisphere winter than a shift toward a warmer mean climate implies by itself. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schneider, Tapio Bischoff, Tobias Płotka, Hanna |
spellingShingle |
Schneider, Tapio Bischoff, Tobias Płotka, Hanna Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability |
author_facet |
Schneider, Tapio Bischoff, Tobias Płotka, Hanna |
author_sort |
Schneider, Tapio |
title |
Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability |
title_short |
Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability |
title_full |
Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability |
title_fullStr |
Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability |
title_sort |
physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/1/jcli-d-14-00632.1.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/2/jcli-d-16-0096.1.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-152635552 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming |
op_relation |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/1/jcli-d-14-00632.1.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/56558/2/jcli-d-16-0096.1.pdf Schneider, Tapio and Bischoff, Tobias and Płotka, Hanna (2015) Physics of Changes in Synoptic Midlatitude Temperature Variability. Journal of Climate, 28 (6). pp. 2312-2331. ISSN 0894-8755. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-152635552 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-152635552> |
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other |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2312 |
op_container_end_page |
2331 |
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1766329367824171008 |