Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annu...
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National Academy of Sciences
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ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:12863 2023-05-15T13:10:32+02:00 Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. 2009-01-06 application/pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/1/EISpnas09.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/2/EISpnas09supp.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:EISpnas09 en eng National Academy of Sciences https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/1/EISpnas09.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/2/EISpnas09supp.pdf Eisenman, I. and Wettlaufer, J. S. (2009) Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106 (1). pp. 28-32. ISSN 0027-8424. PMCID PMC2629232. doi:10.1073/pnas.0806887106. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:EISpnas09 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:EISpnas09> other Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftcaltechauth https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 2021-11-11T18:41:37Z In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) Arctic Arctic Ocean Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 1 28 32 |
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Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) |
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English |
description |
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. |
spellingShingle |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
author_facet |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. |
author_sort |
Eisenman, I. |
title |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of arctic sea ice |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/1/EISpnas09.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/2/EISpnas09supp.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:EISpnas09 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/1/EISpnas09.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/12863/2/EISpnas09supp.pdf Eisenman, I. and Wettlaufer, J. S. (2009) Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106 (1). pp. 28-32. ISSN 0027-8424. PMCID PMC2629232. doi:10.1073/pnas.0806887106. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:EISpnas09 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:EISpnas09> |
op_rights |
other |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
106 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
28 |
op_container_end_page |
32 |
_version_ |
1766232910092828672 |