Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100
The melting of glaciers and ice caps accounts for about one-third of current sea-level rise , exceeding the mass loss from the more voluminous Greenland or Antarctic Ice Sheets. The Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which hosts spatial climate gradients that are larger than the expected temporal clima...
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ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:112998 |
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Open Polar |
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Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) |
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ftcaltechauth |
language |
English |
description |
The melting of glaciers and ice caps accounts for about one-third of current sea-level rise , exceeding the mass loss from the more voluminous Greenland or Antarctic Ice Sheets. The Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which hosts spatial climate gradients that are larger than the expected temporal climate shifts over the next century, is a natural laboratory to constrain the climate sensitivity of glaciers and predict their response to future warming. Here we link historical and modern glacier observations to predict that twenty-first century glacier thinning rates will more than double those from 1936 to 2010. Making use of an archive of historical aerial imagery7 from 1936 and 1938, we use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of 1,594 glaciers across Svalbard. We compare these reconstructions to modern ice elevation data to derive the spatial pattern of mass balance over a more than 70-year timespan, enabling us to see through the noise of annual and decadal variability to quantify how variables such as temperature and precipitation control ice loss. We find a robust temperature dependence of melt rates, whereby a 1 °C rise in mean summer temperature corresponds to a decrease in area-normalized mass balance of −0.28 m yr−1 of water equivalent. Finally, we design a space-for-time substitution8 to combine our historical glacier observations with climate projections and make first-order predictions of twenty-first century glacier change across Svalbard. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Geyman, Emily C. van Pelt, J. J. Ward Maloof, Adam C. Aas, Harald Faste Kohler, Jack |
spellingShingle |
Geyman, Emily C. van Pelt, J. J. Ward Maloof, Adam C. Aas, Harald Faste Kohler, Jack Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
author_facet |
Geyman, Emily C. van Pelt, J. J. Ward Maloof, Adam C. Aas, Harald Faste Kohler, Jack |
author_sort |
Geyman, Emily C. |
title |
Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
title_short |
Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
title_full |
Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
title_sort |
historical glacier change on svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/2/41586_2021_4314_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/3/41586_2021_4314_MOESM2_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/4/41586_2021_4314_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/5/41586_2021_4314_Fig5_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/6/41586_2021_4314_Fig6_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/7/41586_2021_4314_Fig7_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/8/41586_2021_4314_Fig8_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/9/41586_2021_4314_Fig9_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/10/41586_2021_4314_Fig10_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/11/41586_2021_4314_Fig11_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/12/41586_2021_4314_Fig12_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/13/41586_2021_4314_Fig13_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/14/41586_2021_4314_Fig14_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/15/41586_2021_4314_Tab1_ESM.jpg https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220119-680483700 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland Svalbard |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Archipelago Arctic glacier glacier Greenland Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Archipelago Arctic glacier glacier Greenland Svalbard |
op_relation |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/2/41586_2021_4314_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/3/41586_2021_4314_MOESM2_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/4/41586_2021_4314_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/5/41586_2021_4314_Fig5_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/6/41586_2021_4314_Fig6_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/7/41586_2021_4314_Fig7_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/8/41586_2021_4314_Fig8_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/9/41586_2021_4314_Fig9_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/10/41586_2021_4314_Fig10_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/11/41586_2021_4314_Fig11_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/12/41586_2021_4314_Fig12_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/13/41586_2021_4314_Fig13_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/14/41586_2021_4314_Fig14_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/15/41586_2021_4314_Tab1_ESM.jpg Geyman, Emily C. and van Pelt, J. J. Ward and Maloof, Adam C. and Aas, Harald Faste and Kohler, Jack (2022) Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100. Nature, 601 (7893). pp. 374-379. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-04314-4. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220119-680483700 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220119-680483700> |
op_rights |
other |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04314-4 |
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Nature |
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601 |
container_issue |
7893 |
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374 |
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spelling |
ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:112998 2023-05-15T13:36:58+02:00 Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100 Geyman, Emily C. van Pelt, J. J. Ward Maloof, Adam C. Aas, Harald Faste Kohler, Jack 2022-01-20 application/pdf application/vnd.ms-excel image/jpeg https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/2/41586_2021_4314_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/3/41586_2021_4314_MOESM2_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/4/41586_2021_4314_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/5/41586_2021_4314_Fig5_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/6/41586_2021_4314_Fig6_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/7/41586_2021_4314_Fig7_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/8/41586_2021_4314_Fig8_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/9/41586_2021_4314_Fig9_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/10/41586_2021_4314_Fig10_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/11/41586_2021_4314_Fig11_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/12/41586_2021_4314_Fig12_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/13/41586_2021_4314_Fig13_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/14/41586_2021_4314_Fig14_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/15/41586_2021_4314_Tab1_ESM.jpg https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220119-680483700 en eng Nature Publishing Group https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/2/41586_2021_4314_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/3/41586_2021_4314_MOESM2_ESM.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/4/41586_2021_4314_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/5/41586_2021_4314_Fig5_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/6/41586_2021_4314_Fig6_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/7/41586_2021_4314_Fig7_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/8/41586_2021_4314_Fig8_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/9/41586_2021_4314_Fig9_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/10/41586_2021_4314_Fig10_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/11/41586_2021_4314_Fig11_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/12/41586_2021_4314_Fig12_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/13/41586_2021_4314_Fig13_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/14/41586_2021_4314_Fig14_ESM.webp https://authors.library.caltech.edu/112998/15/41586_2021_4314_Tab1_ESM.jpg Geyman, Emily C. and van Pelt, J. J. Ward and Maloof, Adam C. and Aas, Harald Faste and Kohler, Jack (2022) Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100. Nature, 601 (7893). pp. 374-379. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-04314-4. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220119-680483700 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20220119-680483700> other Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftcaltechauth https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04314-4 2022-01-20T18:44:20Z The melting of glaciers and ice caps accounts for about one-third of current sea-level rise , exceeding the mass loss from the more voluminous Greenland or Antarctic Ice Sheets. The Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which hosts spatial climate gradients that are larger than the expected temporal climate shifts over the next century, is a natural laboratory to constrain the climate sensitivity of glaciers and predict their response to future warming. Here we link historical and modern glacier observations to predict that twenty-first century glacier thinning rates will more than double those from 1936 to 2010. Making use of an archive of historical aerial imagery7 from 1936 and 1938, we use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of 1,594 glaciers across Svalbard. We compare these reconstructions to modern ice elevation data to derive the spatial pattern of mass balance over a more than 70-year timespan, enabling us to see through the noise of annual and decadal variability to quantify how variables such as temperature and precipitation control ice loss. We find a robust temperature dependence of melt rates, whereby a 1 °C rise in mean summer temperature corresponds to a decrease in area-normalized mass balance of −0.28 m yr−1 of water equivalent. Finally, we design a space-for-time substitution8 to combine our historical glacier observations with climate projections and make first-order predictions of twenty-first century glacier change across Svalbard. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Archipelago Arctic glacier glacier Greenland Svalbard Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) Antarctic Arctic Greenland Svalbard Nature 601 7893 374 379 |