Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model

State-of-the-art climate models simulate a large spread in the projected decline of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) over the 21st century. Here we diagnose causes of this intermodel spread using a simple model that approximates future SIA based on present SIA and the sensitivity of SIA to Arctic temperatu...

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Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Bonan, David B., Schneider, Tapio, Eisenman, Ian, Wills, Robert C. J.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/7/2021GL094309.pdf
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/1/essoar.10507054.1.pdf
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/4/2021gl094309-sup-0001-supporting%20information%20si-s01.pdf
https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344
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spelling ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:109164 2023-05-15T14:27:27+02:00 Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model Bonan, David B. Schneider, Tapio Eisenman, Ian Wills, Robert C. J. 2021-09-20 application/pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/7/2021GL094309.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/1/essoar.10507054.1.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/4/2021gl094309-sup-0001-supporting%20information%20si-s01.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344 en eng American Geophysical Union https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/7/2021GL094309.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/1/essoar.10507054.1.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/4/2021gl094309-sup-0001-supporting%20information%20si-s01.pdf Bonan, David B. and Schneider, Tapio and Eisenman, Ian and Wills, Robert C. J. (2021) Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (18). Art. No. e2021GL094309. ISSN 0094-8276. doi:10.1029/2021GL094309. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344> other cc_by CC-BY Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftcaltechauth https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094309 2022-07-07T17:53:24Z State-of-the-art climate models simulate a large spread in the projected decline of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) over the 21st century. Here we diagnose causes of this intermodel spread using a simple model that approximates future SIA based on present SIA and the sensitivity of SIA to Arctic temperatures. This model accounts for 70%–95% of the intermodel variance, with the majority of the spread arising from present-day biases. The remaining spread arises from intermodel differences in Arctic warming, with some contribution from differences in the local sea-ice sensitivity. Using observations to constrain the projections moves the probability of an ice-free Arctic forward by 10–35 years when compared to unconstrained projections. Under a high-emissions scenario, an ice-free Arctic will likely (urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62946:grl62946-math-000166% probability) occur between 2036 and 2056 in September and between 2050 and 2068 from July to October. Under a medium-emissions scenario, the “likely” date occurs between 2040 and 2062 in September and much later in the 21st century from July to October. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Sea ice Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 48 18
institution Open Polar
collection Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology)
op_collection_id ftcaltechauth
language English
description State-of-the-art climate models simulate a large spread in the projected decline of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) over the 21st century. Here we diagnose causes of this intermodel spread using a simple model that approximates future SIA based on present SIA and the sensitivity of SIA to Arctic temperatures. This model accounts for 70%–95% of the intermodel variance, with the majority of the spread arising from present-day biases. The remaining spread arises from intermodel differences in Arctic warming, with some contribution from differences in the local sea-ice sensitivity. Using observations to constrain the projections moves the probability of an ice-free Arctic forward by 10–35 years when compared to unconstrained projections. Under a high-emissions scenario, an ice-free Arctic will likely (urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62946:grl62946-math-000166% probability) occur between 2036 and 2056 in September and between 2050 and 2068 from July to October. Under a medium-emissions scenario, the “likely” date occurs between 2040 and 2062 in September and much later in the 21st century from July to October.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Bonan, David B.
Schneider, Tapio
Eisenman, Ian
Wills, Robert C. J.
spellingShingle Bonan, David B.
Schneider, Tapio
Eisenman, Ian
Wills, Robert C. J.
Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
author_facet Bonan, David B.
Schneider, Tapio
Eisenman, Ian
Wills, Robert C. J.
author_sort Bonan, David B.
title Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
title_short Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
title_full Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
title_fullStr Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
title_full_unstemmed Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
title_sort constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free arctic using a simple model
publisher American Geophysical Union
publishDate 2021
url https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/7/2021GL094309.pdf
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/1/essoar.10507054.1.pdf
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/4/2021gl094309-sup-0001-supporting%20information%20si-s01.pdf
https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Arctic
Sea ice
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic
Sea ice
op_relation https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/7/2021GL094309.pdf
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/1/essoar.10507054.1.pdf
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/109164/4/2021gl094309-sup-0001-supporting%20information%20si-s01.pdf
Bonan, David B. and Schneider, Tapio and Eisenman, Ian and Wills, Robert C. J. (2021) Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Using a Simple Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (18). Art. No. e2021GL094309. ISSN 0094-8276. doi:10.1029/2021GL094309. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210518-081155344>
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op_doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094309
container_title Geophysical Research Letters
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