A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier
The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However...
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ftcaltechauth:oai:authors.library.caltech.edu:103818 2023-05-15T13:10:56+02:00 A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier Bushuk, Mitchell Winton, Michael Bonan, David B. Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward Delworth, Thomas L. 2020-07-16 application/pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/3/2020GL088335.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/4/grl60744-sup-0001-text_si-s01.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200610-101316317 unknown American Geophysical Union https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/3/2020GL088335.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/4/grl60744-sup-0001-text_si-s01.pdf Bushuk, Mitchell and Winton, Michael and Bonan, David B. and Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward and Delworth, Thomas L. (2020) A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). Art. No. e2020GL088335. ISSN 0094-8276. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200610-101316317 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200610-101316317> Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftcaltechauth 2021-03-04T18:09:51Z The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Sea ice Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) Arctic |
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Caltech Authors (California Institute of Technology) |
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description |
The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bushuk, Mitchell Winton, Michael Bonan, David B. Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward Delworth, Thomas L. |
spellingShingle |
Bushuk, Mitchell Winton, Michael Bonan, David B. Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward Delworth, Thomas L. A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
author_facet |
Bushuk, Mitchell Winton, Michael Bonan, David B. Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward Delworth, Thomas L. |
author_sort |
Bushuk, Mitchell |
title |
A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
title_short |
A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
title_full |
A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
title_fullStr |
A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
title_full_unstemmed |
A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
title_sort |
mechanism for the arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/ https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/3/2020GL088335.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/4/grl60744-sup-0001-text_si-s01.pdf https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200610-101316317 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/3/2020GL088335.pdf https://authors.library.caltech.edu/103818/4/grl60744-sup-0001-text_si-s01.pdf Bushuk, Mitchell and Winton, Michael and Bonan, David B. and Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward and Delworth, Thomas L. (2020) A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). Art. No. e2020GL088335. ISSN 0094-8276. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200610-101316317 <https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20200610-101316317> |
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