| Summary: | Northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) historically experienced a significant population decrease to the brink of extinction, but have since recovered and re-colonized former breeding/haul-out sites. Point Reyes Peninsula, California, is one location where population increase has resulted colony expansion. We used Maxent to build species distribution models from occurrence data and environmental variables. Maxent models identified suitable habitats and suggested that human disturbance, geomorphology, mean wave height, and slope were important explanatory variables. Sea level rise (SLR) models were built for three scenarios, which indicated that current habitats and high suitability areas would mostly be inundated by 2050. As the Point Reyes coast possesses limited suitable habitat for the seals to colonize, critical conservation measures are needed in response to SLR. The resulting analyses can be used to better understand marine mammal responses to SLR and contribute to effective management of pinnipeds within Point Reyes National Seashore and elsewhere.
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