Development and application of a climate emulator

• Main Authors: Bodai, Tamas, Lembo, Valerio, Aneesh, Sundaresan, Lee, Sun-Seon, Ishizu, Miho, Franz, Matthias O.
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: Greenland; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://opus.htwg-konstanz.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/3492; https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10813

Linear and nonlinear response functions (RF) are extracted for the climate system and the carbon cycle represented by the MPI-ESM and cGENIE models, respectively. Appropriately designed simulations are run for this purpose. Joining these RFs, we have a climate emulator with carbon emissions as the forcing and any desired observable quantity (provided the data is saved), such as the surface air temperature or precipitation, as the predictand. Like e.g. for atmospheric CO2 concentration, we also have RFs for the solar constant as a forcing — mimicking solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. We consider two application cases. 1. One is based on the Paris 2015 agreement, determining the necessary least amount of SRM geoengineering needed to keep the global mean surface air temperature below a certain threshold, e.g. 1.5 or 2 [oC], given a certain amount of carbon emission abatement (ABA) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) geoengineering. 2. The other application considers the conservation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Using a zero-dimensional simplification of a complex ice sheet model, we determine (a) if we need SRM given some ABA and CDR, and, if possible, (b) the required least amount of SRM to avoid the collapse of the GrIS. Keeping temperatures below 2 [oC] even is hardly possible without sustained SRM (1.); however, the collapse of the GrIS can be avoided applying SRM even for moderate levels of CDR and ABA, an overshoot being affordable (2.).