Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus
Волчек Александр, Мешик Олег, Парфомук Сергей, Мажайский Юрий, Черникова, Ольга. Нелинейное моделирование годового стока основных рек Беларуси The article investigates the problem of mathematical description of long-term fluctuations of river runoff, which is relevant for solving problems of modelin...
Published in: | Engineering for Rural Development, 20th International Scientific Conference Engineering for Rural Development Proceedings |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Report |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Latvia University of Life Science and Technologies
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://rep.bstu.by/handle/data/24917 https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 |
id |
ftbreststuniv:oai:rep.bstu.by:data/24917 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftbreststuniv:oai:rep.bstu.by:data/24917 2023-05-15T16:02:57+02:00 Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus Volchak, Aliaksandr Meshyk, Aleh Parfomuk, Sergey Mazhayskiy, Yury Chernikova, Olga Jelgava 2021 application/pdf https://rep.bstu.by/handle/data/24917 https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 en eng Latvia University of Life Science and Technologies Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus / A. Volchak [et al.] // Engineering for Rural Development : 20th International Scientific Conference Engineering for Rural Development, 26-28.05.2021. – Jelgava, LATVIA : Latvia University of Life Science and Technologies, 2021 – P. 49–56. https://rep.bstu.by/handle/data/24917 https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 stochastic hydrology nonlinear modeling river runoff forecast стохастическая гидрология нелинейное моделирование речной сток прогноз Научный доклад Working Paper 2021 ftbreststuniv https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 2022-07-13T17:12:24Z Волчек Александр, Мешик Олег, Парфомук Сергей, Мажайский Юрий, Черникова, Ольга. Нелинейное моделирование годового стока основных рек Беларуси The article investigates the problem of mathematical description of long-term fluctuations of river runoff, which is relevant for solving problems of modeling and forecasting in engineering hydrology. The description of the process of runoff fluctuations is based on the stochastic differential equations of Orshtein-Uhlenbeck and Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov. A technique that makes it possible to apply low-parameter nonlinear dynamic models of river runoff has been developed. Mechanisms of the cyclicity of long-term fluctuations the Pripyat, Neman, West Dvina, Dnieper, and Berezina rivers are described. Comparison of the forecasting results according to the methodology developed by us showed better results than the modeling method using a simple Markov chain. The nonlinear model makes it possible to predict a series that has a correlation function similar to the original series with a shift of 4 or more years, and the Markov model gives good results only for an autocorrelation function with a shift of one year. The simulated series of annual runoff have statistical parameters that differ from the parameters of the original series within ±5-10%. Report dvina Repository of Brest State Technical University Engineering for Rural Development, 20th International Scientific Conference Engineering for Rural Development Proceedings 20 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Repository of Brest State Technical University |
op_collection_id |
ftbreststuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
stochastic hydrology nonlinear modeling river runoff forecast стохастическая гидрология нелинейное моделирование речной сток прогноз |
spellingShingle |
stochastic hydrology nonlinear modeling river runoff forecast стохастическая гидрология нелинейное моделирование речной сток прогноз Volchak, Aliaksandr Meshyk, Aleh Parfomuk, Sergey Mazhayskiy, Yury Chernikova, Olga Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus |
topic_facet |
stochastic hydrology nonlinear modeling river runoff forecast стохастическая гидрология нелинейное моделирование речной сток прогноз |
description |
Волчек Александр, Мешик Олег, Парфомук Сергей, Мажайский Юрий, Черникова, Ольга. Нелинейное моделирование годового стока основных рек Беларуси The article investigates the problem of mathematical description of long-term fluctuations of river runoff, which is relevant for solving problems of modeling and forecasting in engineering hydrology. The description of the process of runoff fluctuations is based on the stochastic differential equations of Orshtein-Uhlenbeck and Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov. A technique that makes it possible to apply low-parameter nonlinear dynamic models of river runoff has been developed. Mechanisms of the cyclicity of long-term fluctuations the Pripyat, Neman, West Dvina, Dnieper, and Berezina rivers are described. Comparison of the forecasting results according to the methodology developed by us showed better results than the modeling method using a simple Markov chain. The nonlinear model makes it possible to predict a series that has a correlation function similar to the original series with a shift of 4 or more years, and the Markov model gives good results only for an autocorrelation function with a shift of one year. The simulated series of annual runoff have statistical parameters that differ from the parameters of the original series within ±5-10%. |
format |
Report |
author |
Volchak, Aliaksandr Meshyk, Aleh Parfomuk, Sergey Mazhayskiy, Yury Chernikova, Olga |
author_facet |
Volchak, Aliaksandr Meshyk, Aleh Parfomuk, Sergey Mazhayskiy, Yury Chernikova, Olga |
author_sort |
Volchak, Aliaksandr |
title |
Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus |
title_short |
Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus |
title_full |
Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus |
title_sort |
nonlinear modeling of annual runoff of main rivers in belarus |
publisher |
Latvia University of Life Science and Technologies |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://rep.bstu.by/handle/data/24917 https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 |
op_coverage |
Jelgava |
genre |
dvina |
genre_facet |
dvina |
op_relation |
Nonlinear Modeling of Annual Runoff of Main Rivers in Belarus / A. Volchak [et al.] // Engineering for Rural Development : 20th International Scientific Conference Engineering for Rural Development, 26-28.05.2021. – Jelgava, LATVIA : Latvia University of Life Science and Technologies, 2021 – P. 49–56. https://rep.bstu.by/handle/data/24917 https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev.2021.20.TF012 |
container_title |
Engineering for Rural Development, 20th International Scientific Conference Engineering for Rural Development Proceedings |
container_volume |
20 |
_version_ |
1766398611495583744 |