Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories
Abstract Most research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfir...
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ftborealisdata:doi:10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA 2023-05-15T17:46:36+02:00 Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA unknown Borealis https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA Other Ecology anthropogenic change climate change habitat Ecological forecasting fire Rangifer SpaDES species at risk vegetation Woodland boreal caribou ftborealisdata https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA 2023-01-22T18:33:01Z Abstract Most research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk. Methods Please see the README document ("README.md") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications. Other/Unknown Material Northwest Territories Rangifer tarandus taiga Taiga plains Borealis Canada Lambda ENVELOPE(-62.983,-62.983,-64.300,-64.300) Northwest Territories |
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Open Polar |
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Borealis |
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ftborealisdata |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Other Ecology anthropogenic change climate change habitat Ecological forecasting fire Rangifer SpaDES species at risk vegetation Woodland boreal caribou |
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Other Ecology anthropogenic change climate change habitat Ecological forecasting fire Rangifer SpaDES species at risk vegetation Woodland boreal caribou Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
topic_facet |
Other Ecology anthropogenic change climate change habitat Ecological forecasting fire Rangifer SpaDES species at risk vegetation Woodland boreal caribou |
description |
Abstract Most research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk. Methods Please see the README document ("README.md") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications. |
author |
Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex |
author_facet |
Stewart, Frances Micheletti, Tatiane McIntire, Eliot Chubaty, Alex |
author_sort |
Stewart, Frances |
title |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_short |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_full |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_fullStr |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories |
title_sort |
estimated values of boreal caribou demographic dates (r, s, lambda) generated from spades landscape simulations in the northwest territories |
publisher |
Borealis |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-62.983,-62.983,-64.300,-64.300) |
geographic |
Canada Lambda Northwest Territories |
geographic_facet |
Canada Lambda Northwest Territories |
genre |
Northwest Territories Rangifer tarandus taiga Taiga plains |
genre_facet |
Northwest Territories Rangifer tarandus taiga Taiga plains |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TQLIJA |
_version_ |
1766150336146309120 |