Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators
Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) i...
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ftborealisdata:doi:10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX 2023-05-15T14:30:27+02:00 Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX unknown Borealis https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX Other ftborealisdata https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX 2022-10-10T05:46:02Z Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators. Other/Unknown Material Arctic cod Arctic Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice Borealis Arctic Hudson Hudson Bay |
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Other Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
topic_facet |
Other |
description |
Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators. |
author |
Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie |
author_facet |
Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie |
author_sort |
Florko, Katie |
title |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_short |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_full |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_fullStr |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_sort |
predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of arctic marine predators |
publisher |
Borealis |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX |
geographic |
Arctic Hudson Hudson Bay |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Hudson Hudson Bay |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX |
_version_ |
1766304291072507904 |