Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock
Environmental hazards are distributed in nonrandom patterns; therefore, many biologists work to predict future hazard locations from the locations of past incidents. Predictive spatial models, or risk maps, promise early warning and targeted prevention of nonnative species invasion, disease spread,...
Published in: | BioScience |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Institute of Biological Sciences
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 |
id |
ftbioone:10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftbioone:10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 2024-05-12T08:02:12+00:00 Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock Adrian Treves Kerry A. Martin Adrian P. Wydeven Jane E. Wiedenhoeft Adrian Treves Kerry A. Martin Adrian P. Wydeven Jane E. Wiedenhoeft world 2011-06-01 text/HTML https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 en eng American Institute of Biological Sciences doi:10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 All rights reserved. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 Text 2011 ftbioone https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 2024-04-16T02:13:36Z Environmental hazards are distributed in nonrandom patterns; therefore, many biologists work to predict future hazard locations from the locations of past incidents. Predictive spatial models, or risk maps, promise early warning and targeted prevention of nonnative species invasion, disease spread, or wildlife damage. The prevention of hazards safeguards both humans and native biodiversity, especially in the case of conflicts with top predators. Top predators play essential ecological roles and maintain biodiversity, but they can also threaten human life and livelihood, which leads people to eradicate predator populations. In the present article, we present a risk map for gray wolf (Canis lupus) attacks on livestock in Wisconsin between 1999 and 2006 that correctly identified risk in 88% of subsequent attack sites from 2007 to 2009. More-open habitats farther from any forest and closer to wolf pack ranges were the riskiest for livestock. Prediction promotes prevention. We recommend that the next generation of risk mappers employ several criteria for model selection, validate model predictions against data not used in model construction before publication, and integrate predictors from organismal biology alongside human and environmental predictors. Text Canis lupus gray wolf BioOne Online Journals BioScience 61 6 451 458 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
BioOne Online Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftbioone |
language |
English |
description |
Environmental hazards are distributed in nonrandom patterns; therefore, many biologists work to predict future hazard locations from the locations of past incidents. Predictive spatial models, or risk maps, promise early warning and targeted prevention of nonnative species invasion, disease spread, or wildlife damage. The prevention of hazards safeguards both humans and native biodiversity, especially in the case of conflicts with top predators. Top predators play essential ecological roles and maintain biodiversity, but they can also threaten human life and livelihood, which leads people to eradicate predator populations. In the present article, we present a risk map for gray wolf (Canis lupus) attacks on livestock in Wisconsin between 1999 and 2006 that correctly identified risk in 88% of subsequent attack sites from 2007 to 2009. More-open habitats farther from any forest and closer to wolf pack ranges were the riskiest for livestock. Prediction promotes prevention. We recommend that the next generation of risk mappers employ several criteria for model selection, validate model predictions against data not used in model construction before publication, and integrate predictors from organismal biology alongside human and environmental predictors. |
author2 |
Adrian Treves Kerry A. Martin Adrian P. Wydeven Jane E. Wiedenhoeft |
format |
Text |
author |
Adrian Treves Kerry A. Martin Adrian P. Wydeven Jane E. Wiedenhoeft |
spellingShingle |
Adrian Treves Kerry A. Martin Adrian P. Wydeven Jane E. Wiedenhoeft Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock |
author_facet |
Adrian Treves Kerry A. Martin Adrian P. Wydeven Jane E. Wiedenhoeft |
author_sort |
Adrian Treves |
title |
Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock |
title_short |
Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock |
title_full |
Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock |
title_sort |
forecasting environmental hazards and the application of risk maps to predator attacks on livestock |
publisher |
American Institute of Biological Sciences |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 |
op_coverage |
world |
genre |
Canis lupus gray wolf |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus gray wolf |
op_source |
https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 |
op_relation |
doi:10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 |
op_rights |
All rights reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.7 |
container_title |
BioScience |
container_volume |
61 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
451 |
op_container_end_page |
458 |
_version_ |
1798844297675538432 |