El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale
Global climate cycles have been shown to influence demographic rates of birds at local scales, but few analyses have examined these effects at larger, regional scales. We examined the relationship of broad-scale climate indices to apparent survival of a subspecies of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus...
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ftbioone:10.1525/auk.2012.12017 2024-05-12T08:08:12+00:00 El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale Joseph A. Lamanna T. Luke George James F. Saracco M. Philip Nott David F. DeSante Joseph A. Lamanna T. Luke George James F. Saracco M. Philip Nott David F. DeSante world 2012-10-01 text/HTML https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12017 en eng American Ornithological Society doi:10.1525/auk.2012.12017 All rights reserved. https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12017 Text 2012 ftbioone https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12017 2024-04-16T02:13:36Z Global climate cycles have been shown to influence demographic rates of birds at local scales, but few analyses have examined these effects at larger, regional scales. We examined the relationship of broad-scale climate indices to apparent survival of a subspecies of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) across a large portion of the subspecies' breeding range along the Pacific slope of North America. We developed 69 a priori Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to examine effects of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, latitude, region, and residency status on survival. The most parsimonious model included an ENSO effect, a regional effect, and a residency effect on survival. The ENSO had a positive effect on survival probability, and the effect was consistent across the entire portion of the breeding range examined. Additional analyses of a posteriori models provided strong support for an effect of dry-season precipitation along the spring migration route in western Mexico on annual survival. Our results suggest that survival of this Neotropical migrant is strongly influenced by ENSO-related weather changes during one or more periods of its annual cycle. Because many western Neotropical migrants migrate through and winter in the same general geographic area as Swainson's Thrushes, it is possible that other such species are similarly influenced by ENSO. If, as some climate models predict, annual variation in ENSO increases, Swainson's Thrush may suffer greater variation in annual survival. Directly associating climate with key demographic parameters provides a powerful approach to predicting a species' response to climate change. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation BioOne Online Journals Pacific The Auk 129 4 734 743 |
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English |
description |
Global climate cycles have been shown to influence demographic rates of birds at local scales, but few analyses have examined these effects at larger, regional scales. We examined the relationship of broad-scale climate indices to apparent survival of a subspecies of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) across a large portion of the subspecies' breeding range along the Pacific slope of North America. We developed 69 a priori Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to examine effects of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, latitude, region, and residency status on survival. The most parsimonious model included an ENSO effect, a regional effect, and a residency effect on survival. The ENSO had a positive effect on survival probability, and the effect was consistent across the entire portion of the breeding range examined. Additional analyses of a posteriori models provided strong support for an effect of dry-season precipitation along the spring migration route in western Mexico on annual survival. Our results suggest that survival of this Neotropical migrant is strongly influenced by ENSO-related weather changes during one or more periods of its annual cycle. Because many western Neotropical migrants migrate through and winter in the same general geographic area as Swainson's Thrushes, it is possible that other such species are similarly influenced by ENSO. If, as some climate models predict, annual variation in ENSO increases, Swainson's Thrush may suffer greater variation in annual survival. Directly associating climate with key demographic parameters provides a powerful approach to predicting a species' response to climate change. |
author2 |
Joseph A. Lamanna T. Luke George James F. Saracco M. Philip Nott David F. DeSante |
format |
Text |
author |
Joseph A. Lamanna T. Luke George James F. Saracco M. Philip Nott David F. DeSante |
spellingShingle |
Joseph A. Lamanna T. Luke George James F. Saracco M. Philip Nott David F. DeSante El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale |
author_facet |
Joseph A. Lamanna T. Luke George James F. Saracco M. Philip Nott David F. DeSante |
author_sort |
Joseph A. Lamanna |
title |
El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale |
title_short |
El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale |
title_full |
El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale |
title_fullStr |
El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale |
title_full_unstemmed |
El Niño—Southern Oscillation Influences Annual Survival of a Migratory Songbird at a Regional Scale |
title_sort |
el niño—southern oscillation influences annual survival of a migratory songbird at a regional scale |
publisher |
American Ornithological Society |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12017 |
op_coverage |
world |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12017 |
op_relation |
doi:10.1525/auk.2012.12017 |
op_rights |
All rights reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12017 |
container_title |
The Auk |
container_volume |
129 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
734 |
op_container_end_page |
743 |
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1798851123109429248 |