Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap
In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction...
Published in: | Journal of Hydrology |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11772/4497 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 |
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ftbartinuniv:oai:acikerisim.bartin.edu.tr:11772/4497 2023-05-15T15:00:09+02:00 Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap Beyaztas, Ufuk and Arikan, Bugrayhan Bickici and Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye and Kahya, Ercan 2018 http://hdl.handle.net/11772/4497 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 eng eng ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 0022-1694 http://hdl.handle.net/11772/4497 559 461 470 JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2018 ftbartinuniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 2021-06-09T19:48:10Z In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Other/Unknown Material Arctic North Atlantic Bartin University: DSpace@Bartin Arctic Journal of Hydrology 559 461 470 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Bartin University: DSpace@Bartin |
op_collection_id |
ftbartinuniv |
language |
English |
description |
In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
author |
Beyaztas, Ufuk and Arikan, Bugrayhan Bickici and Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye and Kahya, Ercan |
spellingShingle |
Beyaztas, Ufuk and Arikan, Bugrayhan Bickici and Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye and Kahya, Ercan Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
author_facet |
Beyaztas, Ufuk and Arikan, Bugrayhan Bickici and Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye and Kahya, Ercan |
author_sort |
Beyaztas, Ufuk and Arikan, Bugrayhan Bickici and Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye and Kahya, Ercan |
title |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_short |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_full |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_fullStr |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_full_unstemmed |
Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap |
title_sort |
construction of prediction intervals for palmer drought severity index using bootstrap |
publisher |
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11772/4497 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY |
op_relation |
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 0022-1694 http://hdl.handle.net/11772/4497 559 461 470 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology |
container_volume |
559 |
container_start_page |
461 |
op_container_end_page |
470 |
_version_ |
1766332265453846528 |